THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — It’s hard to believe that, in just a couple of weeks, the Rams’ unglamorous 2022 season will be over. For now, they’re playing for pride (and have won two of their past three games).
I’m taking a look at the Rams’ roster by position, including what could happen in 2023. Up first, the offense (and the specialists):
Quarterback
The Rams were looking for the mean in quarterback Baker Mayfield, and Sunday against Denver they found it. Behind a balanced run-pass effort and underneath Denver’s aggressive shell coverages, Mayfield made efficient decisions and kept the ball moving. Eighteen of his 28 dropbacks were passes of 5 air yards or less, but he recorded a 0.0 percent off-target rate on those throws. He entered the game with an 11.4 percent off-target rate on those specific throws.
Earlier this month, starting quarterback Matthew Stafford said on his wife Kelly’s podcast that he is not retiring — this was not actually in question from anyone legitimately connected to the team — but questions about his long-term health after a spine injury were fair. Head coach Sean McVay has reiterated that he believes Stafford will have a normal, “healthy” offseason after the quarterback missed most of the spring and summer while recovering from a non-surgical elbow procedure.
In 2023: The Rams should, at minimum, get a compensatory pick for Mayfield. That was the plan when they claimed him off waivers, and that hasn’t changed, especially in light of Stafford’s comments and his and McVay’s mutual commitment. I think the Rams have already seen what they need to see to be totally fine if Mayfield wants to be their backup, but he will want (and should want) to be a starter.
However, by bringing in Mayfield, the Rams also made it clear that they’ll look to upgrade their standard backup quarterback position. Current backups are John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Case Cookus. This might be the year that they draft a quarterback in the middle rounds and develop him as a long-term backup with upside.
Offensive line
The offensive line has finally gotten its footing after starting the 2022 season with 12 combinations in 13 games. Two of the three players the Rams invested in via multiyear extensions this offseason, left tackle Joe Noteboom and center Brian Allen, have suffered season-ending injuries.
In 2023: I believe the Rams’ best version of the offensive line looks like this: Alaric Jackson (if he’s healthy), Noteboom or other, Coleman Shelton, Logan Bruss/Tremayne Anchrum/other, Rob Havenstein. The Rams could add to the position in free agency and the draft, but some of the players thrust into larger roles this season — such as Jackson and Shelton — have displayed huge potential despite their “undrafted free agent” billing. Like it or not, the Rams don’t necessarily adhere to a lineman’s draft status when equating his role or fit in their system.
I also think the Rams should keep Oday Aboushi if they can, as he has proven to be a solid depth player in a pinch. They will get Bruss back, but he still needs time to develop, and Anchrum should also be back and can play guard and backup tackle. Chandler Brewer played well at right guard in limited snaps before his injury.
The Rams would incur $7 million in dead money in 2023 alone if they cut Noteboom after June 1, and the toll would be $13 million before that date. The financial hit is far less if they trade him after June 1, but it’s hard to believe other teams would do that without first seeing how Noteboom returns from injury. For that reason, the Rams’ best 2023 option may be to play Noteboom at guard. His contract becomes much more movable in 2024. If Allen is cut before June 1, the Rams incur a $4.5 million dead-money hit, but a post-June 1 cut is a $1.8 million hit. The Rams love both players as teammates, but durability has always been a concern and certainly is now.
Running back
What a year for Cam Akers. The Rams tried, and failed, to trade the third-year running back earlier this season after a mutual disagreement about his role and how it was being communicated by coaches led to a multiweek absence from team facilities before the trade deadline. Akers returned, the Rams cut former tandem back Darrell Henderson (currently unsigned), and Akers went on to rush for 4.4 yards per carry and six touchdowns through December as he and McVay renewed their commitment publicly.
In 2023: I believe the Rams would like to keep Akers, and in doing so they should continue to expand the actual, tangible roles of assistant coach Thomas Brown, who is also the assistant head coach in title. Brown, who coached tight ends to start the season, shifted over into a larger role with the running backs upon the departure of first-year assistant Ra’Shaad Samples to Arizona State. That move, plus more consistency in personnel along the offensive line and in game planning, has coincided with the re-emergence of the run game through the past month. Second-year back Kyren Williams is still developing and complements Akers well. The Rams will probably also draft a running back because 2023 will be a contract year for Akers.
Allen Robinson (Douglas DeFelice/USA Today)
Wide receiver
Similar to how things played out at quarterback and on the offensive line, the season could not have gone much more sideways at a position group than it did for the Rams receivers. Cooper Kupp had season-ending surgery on a high ankle sprain, high-dollar free-agent acquisition Allen Robinson suffered a stress fracture and also had season-ending surgery, and Ben Skowronek, who played pretty much everything for the team (including fullback) , was shut down after Week 15 because of a calf strain.
In 2023: A lineup that features Kupp, Van Jefferson and Skowronek seems certain. Second-year receiver Tutu Atwell has also had bright moments late this season but has yet to prove he can maintain a consistent role. Less certain is the future of veteran Robinson, who was grouped into a series of trade rumors before the deadline. After appearing to install a wide-ranging and diverse plan for Robinson in training camp, the Rams struggled to get him involved in their offense early in the season (which corresponded with the overall timing and design of their pass game, and a total lack of protection as their offensive line imploded).
Robinson could be a big-bodied and friendly target, especially on underneath concepts for a team that doesn’t have a second reliable “tight end”-style player. He showed that when healthy he can still go up and grab a contested catch as an X receiver. I think he’d be effective if he got more opportunities in the slot, too. Robinson has two years left on the three-year, $46.5 million deal he signed last spring.
If they want to keep him, the Rams’ staff will have to be more open-minded with their plan and get him involved on more high-probability throws, and he’ll need a stronger start to next season. If the Rams don’t keep him, they will definitely look to add from elsewhere in their receiving corps. I would also expect the Rams to again pursue Odell Beckham Jr. if he remains unsigned into the spring.
Brandon Powell, who is the team’s return specialist and has emerged as a do-it-all player in the pass and run games, is also in a contract year. The Rams continue to develop undrafted free agent Lance McCutcheon and core special teamer (with huge receiving potential, if he can put it together and stay healthy) Jacob Harris.
Tight end
No. 1 tight end Tyler Higbee had his best game of the season in Week 16 against Denver, catching eight passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns. It’s hard to know how clean an evaluation to give Higbee for the full season because he has been playing through a variety of injuries. He has one year left on his current deal, and the Rams may let him play it all the way out without an early extension to see how the season goes.
In 2023: Brycen Hopkins played well in Week 16 and took on a variety of blocking roles minus Skowronek, but there is still no clear No. 2 tight ends for this offense. If the Rams, who have several hybrid receivers in that group, would like to continue to roster just two tight ends, they need to solidify the No. 2 spots. No other depth tight end has taken significant offensive snaps in 2022.
Specialists
The Rams found a great kicker in Matt Gay, who has now made seven kicks of 50-plus yards this season, and stability at punter and long snapper in Riley Dixon and Matt Orzech.
It would be a surprise to see them shake things up in this group this offseason, but Gay is a free agent in 2023 and will have a market for a multiyear contract. He is currently playing on a one-year, $2.54 million deal.
(Top photo of Cam Akers: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)
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