Our Week 16 NFL betting card was looking pretty good until the final minutes of the early slate on Saturday. Then the Giants and Vikings scored 28 points in the fourth quarter, including 18 in the final three minutes. Thank goodness the Bengals managed to hold on after their near collapse to save us from a reverse sweep but either way, not a great day. If it’s any consolation, I felt we were on the right side in two of the three plays, but the results didn’t hold up.
Last week’s record: 1-2, -1.75 units
Season’s record: 38-36-3, -4.32 units, -5.2% ROI
For the first time in weeks, we have a pretty large card as we have six plays which consist of five spread bets. There are some familiar faces on the card this week, whether we are backing them or fading them, and finally, we are not on a Vikings under, so we can avoid the witchcraft they’ve pulled off the past two weeks. Although we are on the over there, and I’m sure every scoring chance will be squandered. That’s just how things have been going. Let’s see what we have this week.
NFL Week 17 Best Bets
All odds are from BetMGM and locked when the article is published.
The Lions got mauled last week but are in a prime spot to bounce back this week against a banged-up Justin Fields. The Lions offense should have no problem moving up and down the field against this poor Bears’ defense, and if Fields isn’t playing at 100 percent, that gives the Lions’ defense some relief.
Worst line to bet: Lions -6 -110
I was debating on whether to reduce risk on this play or not since the Jaguars game against the Titans in Week 18 is winner-take-all in the AFC South, but the Jags still have a path to a Wild Card spot and considering who else is in the race, I don’t think they’ll risk not trying to win this week. If they are full go this week, this line would be near a touchdown, but I think the market has overreacted to them not caring about this game.
Worst line to bet: Jaguars -4 -110
Fading the Panthers again, and things probably can’t be worse than what we saw from the Lions last week. The Panthers ran all over the Lions last week, which is not surprising, considering the Lions are 28th in success rate against the run. The Bucs are 10th. Without consistent success on the ground, the Panthers will have to rely more on Sam Darnold and I don’t think that bodes well on the road.
Worst line to bet: Bucs -3 -110
Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100) at Green Bay Packers (to win 0.5 units)
This might be 3.5 at some spots, so be sure to shop around, but the market respect that the Packers have gotten over the past few weeks has been impressive. Unfortunately, I think it’s gone too far here. The Vikings can move the ball very well against a zone defense, and the Packers rely on playing zone. The Packers should have some success, too, but I think getting a field goal or better is the play to make here. I’m reducing risk because I’m also going to be on the total in this game.
Worst line to bet: Vikings +3 -110
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers over 47 (-110)
Usually, games at Lambeau Field in late December have some pretty harsh weather, but the forecast is looking to have very little wind and temperatures well above freezing. So now that we have that out of the way let’s talk about the matchup for both of these offenses. I mentioned above that the Packers play a ton of zone, and that matchup bodes well for the Vikings. Kirk Cousins is a Top-10 quarterback against zone coverage by EPA this season. The same matchup provides advantages for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers and the offense have really struggled against man coverage this season, and they’ll face a Vikings’ defense that plays a ton of zone. Both quarterbacks will have favorable matchups and good weather, which should mean plenty of points.
Worst line to bet: Over 47 -115
These two matched up just a few weeks ago, and Mitch Trubisky was driving up and down the field before turning the ball over multiple times deep into Ravens’ territory. Kenny Pickett will get the start which should be a slight upgrade for the Steelers offense. Pickett has been playing much better down the stretch. In fact, since Week 10, Pickett ranks 11th in EPA/Dropback. It’s a small sample, but seeing progress from the rookie gives me hope against a Ravens defense that is below average in just about every meaningful metric against the pass.
Worst line to bet: Steelers +3 -115
(Photo of Kenny Pickett: Gaelen Morse/Getty Images)
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