The Indiana Pacers take on the Miami Heat. Check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Pacers Heat prediction and pick.
The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are both 16-16 through 32 games as they prepare for Friday’s meeting in Miami. No one expected both teams to be at .500 this deep into the NBA campaign. The Pacers were supposed to tank before the season. Many NBA experts thought Indiana would be one of the worst teams in the league. The Heat, on the other hand, came within one Jimmy Butler 3-pointer of taking the lead over the Boston Celtics in the final seconds of Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat put a surprisingly good supporting cast around Jimmy Butler and nearly reached the NBA Finals. The Heat weren’t the preseason favorite in the East — the Bucks and Celtics were — but they certainly weren’t supposed to fall this far. The unexpected success of the Pacers and the noticeable struggles of the Heat form the backdrop to a genuinely interesting regular-season game on Friday night before the entire NBA takes Christmas Eve off and most of the Association watches the five Christmas Day games on Sunday.
Here are the Pacers-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
NBA Odds: Pacers-Heat Odds
Indiana Pacers: +6.5 (-112)
Miami Heat: -6.5 (-108)
Over: 223.5 (-110)
Under: 223.5 (-110)
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
The Pacers have exciting, young talent. The trade with the Sacramento Kings gave them Tyrese Haliburton, an electric scorer and playmaker, but that was not considered enough to make the Pacers a playoff contender in the East. What has emerged over the course of the first 32 games of the season is that Bennedict Mathurin, the draft pick from the University of Arizona, is the real deal. Mathurin’s speed was always apparent in college, but athleticism alone does not separate good players from the rest. Mathurin has a nose for the ball and is able to beat opponents to spots on the floor. He is hungry and savvy, which is what makes athletic ability a true virtue. Every NBA player is a world-class athlete, but the especially good players know how to get to the ball and see the game a half-second faster than everyone else on the court. Mathurin is just such a player, which gives the Pacers a winning edge.
We also have to note that the Miami Heat are constantly bombarded by injuries and illnesses. Jimmy Butler did not play earlier this week due to illness in a loss to the Bulls. He should be back in the lineup for this game, but it’s hard to maintain a rhythm when one is jerked in and out of the lineup due to health reasons. The Heat need Butler, but they shouldn’t expect him to be fully sharp, and that’s enough reason to pick the Pacers, who are getting several points on the spread.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Jimmy Butler coming back is huge. The Heat were lost at sea without their best player and spiritual leader against the Bulls. You know Butler wanted to play against his former team, but he couldn’t, and Miami’s defense suffered as a result. Now, with Butler on the floor, Miami should be in much better shape.
Beyond Butler, another basic reason to pick the Heat is that they have played better over the past week and a half. They have won four of five to get back to the .500 mark. They were atrocious two weeks ago, when they lost to both the Pistons and Spurs at home. That was embarrassing, and the Heat played with appropriate focus and attention to detail in the games since those two awful losses. One of those bounce-back games for the Heat was a win in Indianapolis against the Pacers, an 87-82 win in which Indiana did not score more than 23 points in any quarter and scored fewer than 20 points in two separate quarters. That’s the defense Erik Spoelstra knows his team can deliver. The Heat feel comfortable in this matchup.
Final Pacers-Heat Prediction & Pick
The Heat might win outright, but six and a half points feels like a lot, given that even though the Pacers played a horrendous game against the Heat a week and a half ago, they still lost by only five. Also, Jimmy Butler probably won’t be razor-sharp after returning from his illness.
Final Pacers-Heat Prediction & Pick: Pacers +6.5
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