With the Mets re-signing right-handed reliever Adam Ottavino to a two-year deal worth $14.5 million that contains an opt-out after the 2023 season, New York’s bullpen is starting to look formidable.
Along with Ottavino, the bullpen will include a closer Edwin Diaz (re-signed to a five-year deal worth $102 million), David Robertson (signed to a one-year deal), left-hander Brooks Raley (acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays via trade), and very likely Drew Smith.
And it should be noted that of the Mets’ five notable relievers who hit free agency, it will be only Ottavino who returns.
Seth Lugo signed a two-year deal (with a second-year player option) with the San Diego Padres worth roughly $15 million, and is expected to have the chance to again be a starting pitcher — which has been his desire for years.
Trevor May signed with the Oakland Athletics on a one-year deal worth $7 million.
Trevor Williams signed a two-year deal with the Washington Nationals worth $13 million and — like Lugo — is expected to start.
Joely Rodriguez signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox worth $2 million.
I argued earlier this offseason that the Mets should pursue a reunion with Ottavino, but that they might be wise to move on if the bidding reached $7 million or so annually or was for more than one guaranteed year. But with free agent deals for relievers (and really every kind of player) ballooning this offseason, the Mets’ agreement with Ottavino looks like a relative bargain.
And with Ottavino’s dominance against righties and Robertson’s crossover ability and prowess against lefties (he held them to a .550 OPS in 2022), the Mets should have a legitimate two-headed monster to help create a bridge to Diaz.
But can Ottavino repeat what he did in 2022?
Coming off a relatively down season in 2021, when he had a 4.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 69 games for the Red Sox — and a 2020 with the Yankees when he posted a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in limited opportunities — Ottavino was one of the Mets’ most valuable relievers last season.
In 66 appearances over 65.2 innings, Ottavino had a 2.06 ERA (2.85 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP with 79 strikeouts — a rate of 10.8 per 9. Ottavino was also elite while allowing just 6.6 hits per nine, his best rate since allowing 6.4 hits per nine for the Yankees in 2019.
Meanwhile, Ottavino’s 0.97 WHIP was the best he posted since 2016, when he had a 0.92 WHIP for the Colorado Rockies.
What Ottavino did for the Mets in 2022 was tremendous compared to how he performed in 2021 and 2020, and his success was backed up by advanced numbers that were truly eye-opening.
And Ottavino had a not-too-distant history of dominance, with two of his best seasons coming in 2018 for the Rockies and 2019 for the Yankees.
Whether or not Ottavino can continue to be a late-inning cog will have a lot to do with the success of his slider, a frisbee that he has thrown 45 percent of the time during his 12-year career and threw 42.8 percent of the time in 2022.
Ottavino’s other weapons in 2022 were a fastball he threw 44.8 percent of the time (and had an average velocity of 94.4 mph), a split-finger fastball he threw 7.2 percent of the time, and a cutter he relied on 5.2 percent of the time .
But for all of the positives that come with Ottavino, one big negative sticks out: He was very bad against left-handed hitters in 2022.
Lefties slashed .301/.358/.480 against him in 81 plate appearances. Those failures against lefties were a stark contrast to his dominance against righties, whom he held to a sparkling .161/.226/.253 triple slash in 177 plate appearances.
If Ottavino’s struggles against lefties in 2022 were a one-year blip, they might be easy to get past. But he has been hit hard by them throughout his career, with left-handers punishing him to the tune of a .274/.372/.424 triple slash.
It should be noted that Ottavino handled lefties just fine in 2021 in the power department, holding them to a .393 slugging percentage. But they got on base at a very good .384 clip.
One thing that hurts Ottavino and other relievers who aren’t true crossover guys is the recently implemented three-batter rule that requires a pitcher who enters a game to face at least three batters (if he begins an inning) or finish an inning (if he enters in the middle of one).
Ottavino’s struggles against lefties are by no means something that means huge trouble in 2023, and should be offset a bit by the presence of Robertson and Raley (who absolutely carved up lefties in 2022), allowing the Mets to pick and choose Ottavino’s spots more strategically than they did last season.
But again, the level at which Ottavino struggled against lefties in 2022 might have been an outlier. And overall, Ottavino was fantastic last season.
He was among the best in the league when it came to average exit velocity allowed (99th percentile), hard hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, and barrel percentage (all in the 97th percentile), xSLG (96th percentile), and strikeout percentage ( 89th percentile).
Ottavino was also above average in walk rate (2.2 per nine), whiff percentage, fastball spin, and fastball velocity. But while Ottavino’s walk rate was terrific in 2022, it’s fair to wonder if that was a one-year blip for a guy who averaged 5.2 walks per 9 between 2017 and 2021.
As far as Ottavino’s vaunted slider, batters hit just .165 with a .289 slugging percentage against it in 2022 after hitting .248 with a .440 slugging percentage against Ottavino’s slider in 2021.
With Ottavino back, it’s fair to wonder if it precludes the Mets from trading for a Chicago White Sox closer Liam Hendriks. If not, and Hendriks joins the bullpen in Queens, it will be truly vaunted.
But even if Ottavino is the last “big” bullpen addition the Mets make this winter, they have successfully rebuilt a unit that was close to barren when the offseason began.