That day in August had been full of surprises, so it’s possible this one slipped through a few radars at the time. Rangers’ majority owner Ray Davis had just finished giving a statement and was answering questions about the firing of president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and someone asked him about the team’s offseason needs. Most of the answer was somewhat predictable, but one part caused at least one reporter to cock his head to the side slightly like a chocolate lab who just heard the word “walk.”
“We obviously know what our needs are going into ’23,” Davis began. “We need a couple of front-end starters and we need a middle-of-the-lineup bat. Beyond that, whatever they bring to me, if we can afford it — I don’t plan on spending as much money as we did last offseason, but we plan on spending some money.”
The pitching part was obvious. But the Rangers’ offense had been producing much better than the previous year. The team added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Mitch Garver. Nathaniel Lowe was in the middle of a breakout season, and Adolis García was avoiding the late-season wilt that had plagued him a year before. Jonah Heim’s first half was very impressive, and while Josh Jung hadn’t arrived in Arlington yet, it already seemed likely that he would be added to the lineup in 2023. That left three spots in the lineup, which could ostensibly be filled by Leody Taveras, Bubba Thompson and Ezequiel Duran (or Brad Miller, or Eli White).
But the desire to upgrade the offense (specifically in left field) has since been reiterated on multiple occasions by general manager and president of baseball operations Chris Young, so it doesn’t seem like Davis’ statement was off base.
And yet, here we are: it’s December. 19, and a large portion of the outfield free-agent class has been snatched up. Cody Bellinger, Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Brantley and even former Rangers All-Star Joey Gallo have all found homes (Aaron Judge was never a legitimate possibility in Texas, but at any rate, he’s also off the board). That leaves very few remaining free agents who might fit the description of “middle-of-the-lineup,” so assuming the Rangers don’t stick with any of their internal options for next season, let’s run through three routes to fill that need. from the outside: free agency, trade and outside-the-box possibilities.
Free agents
Michael Conforto
This is the name the Rangers have been most closely connected to in reports this year. The upside is obvious, with a career line of .255/.356/.468 (.824 OPS) showing both on-base and power value. He hasn’t played left field since 2018, splitting time between center and right field in 2019 (playing exclusively right field in 2020-2021) but that’s not a major issue, since García could easily slide over to left. The big problem is that he didn’t play any of those positions or take a single at-bat in 2022. After declining a qualifying offer worth $18.4 million at the end of the 2021 season, Michael Conforto became a free agent. According to a source familiar with the proceedings, the Rangers had interest in signing the former Met to play for the Rangers in 2022, but disaster precluded that pairing when Conforto injured his right shoulder in January. The subsequent surgery cost him the entire season.
He’s clearly the best outfielder remaining on the market, but how much former-Mets-star injury risk can the Rangers take on in one winter?
Jurickson Profar
Gallo wasn’t the only former Ranger available in free agency this season. Jurickson Profar was once the sport’s top prospect, but after missing a lot of time with injuries early in his career, he hasn’t yet been able to find the consistency to live up to that billing. His career-high OPS of .793 came in 2018, his last year in Texas before being traded to the Athletics. That doesn’t exactly scream “middle-of-the-lineup,” so even though Profar had a better year in 2022 than the year before — his home runs jumped to 15 from a mere four in 2021 — it’s not immediately clear that he would be a major upgrade over Thompson, especially given Thompson’s speed as a defender in left field. Still, the Rangers might trust Profar’s track record over the incumbent youngster.
And that, friends, is about it on the free-agent market.
Other possibilities
Wil Myers has only hit 20+ home runs twice (2016-17) and a right knee injury limited him to just 77 games last year. AJ Pollock had a down year in 2022, finishing with an OPS of just .681, but from 2014-2021, posted a line of .284/.341/.497 (.838 OPS). He turned 35 earlier this month, so was last year an aberration, or the beginning of his decline? Adam Duvall is a year younger than Pollock, but his decent power is offset by a .289 career on-base percentage. Tommy Pham will turn 35 in March and also had a down year in 2022. Corey Dickerson has hit a combined 19 home runs in the last three seasons. There are other names, but none that seem to be markedly more promising than the ones listed here.
Bryan Reynolds. (Katie Stratman/USA Today)
Trade market
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
You’ve heard the details by now: Bryan Reynolds is almost certainly the most talented outfielder on the trade block. That’s assuming that he is, in fact, on the trade block. Could the Rangers muster up a “Soto-like package” for Reynolds? Sure, but ideally you’d save that for a Soto-like player. That’s not a knock on Reynolds, who has been worth 13.6 bWAR over his four-year career. Soto, on the other hand, was worth 20.1 bWAR over that same period (and 17.6 bWAR over the first four years of his career). Soto had 2 1/2 years left before free agency when he was traded, and Reynolds had three, so there’s not a ton of difference there.
So if that’s the asking price, it’s probably a pass. But a lot depends on how serious the Pittsburgh front office was when they said they didn’t intend to trade him. If Reynolds really wants out, maybe the Pirates ease off the hard-nosed negotiations as spring training draws closer.
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
Why would the Orioles trade Anthony Santander just as they’re approaching contention themselves, especially when he hit 33 home runs for them last season? Well, the Orioles are notoriously salary-conscious, and while Santander is still two seasons away from free agency, there are two young outfielders — Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers — who look like they could be MLB regulars as soon as early as 2023. If The Orioles could pick up a few more prospects that line up with their young core (think Durán, Winn, or someone else either on the brink or recently promoted to the big leagues), it might make sense for them to part with the 28- year-old Santander and shoot for 2024 and beyond.
But yes, this feels like a long shot.
One of the Diamondbacks’ outfielders
There’s been some smoke on this front all winter. There are three potential fits for Texas here: Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll. Varsho has good power, with 27 home runs last year, but his on-base percentage of just .302 isn’t thrilling. McCarthy is kind of the opposite, getting on base at a .342 clip, but only slugging .427 with eight home runs in 99 games. While Young’s MO this winter has been more geared toward established players than prospects, Carroll might be the biggest fish available. In his first 104 big-league at-bats last year, he hit .260/.330/.500 (.830) with four home runs. His 31/8 strikeout-to-walk rate could use improvement, but in the minor leagues, it was a more palatable 107/67 in 442 plate appearances. He also hit 24 home runs and carried a line of .307/.425/.610 (1.036).
The Diamondbacks have a bit of a backlog of left-handed-hitting outfielders, so it’s possible the best fit could be a prospect-for-prospect swap, with one of the Rangers’ top starting pitchers heading up a deal.
Other possibilities
You never really know who’s available this time of year, but traditional wisdom says you generally don’t try to pry a star off a contender. Skimming the won’t-contend teams doesn’t offer much in the way of attractive possibilities, though. Maybe Ramón Laureano’s down year was just the byproduct of him missing the first part of the season with a PED suspension, but I’m not sure the Rangers are willing to pay the price to find out. I’d check in with the Reds to see what they’re asking for Jake Fraley, who had an OPS of .812 last season but did so with just 12 home runs. His high on-base percentage might lend itself more to a leadoff spot, which would push the existing boppers down into the middle of the lineup.
Outside-the-box possibilities
With so many of the outfield free agents off the board, it’s worth wondering if the Rangers might pivot to a designated hitter or first baseman (which would push Nathaniel Lowe into a primary-DH role). Justin Turner would have fit the bill, but as of Sunday, he’s off the board and headed to the Red Sox. Brandon Belt is still available, and while he hit just eight home runs last year, he’s only one season removed from a career-high 29 dingers. Like Fraley, his value might be more in a leadoff or No. 2 spot in the lineup, allowing his on-base skills to best benefit the rest of the lineup.
Or if we’re still looking at the trade market, the Rangers could go back to the Diamondbacks and see what they want for first baseman Christian Walker, who turns 32 in March but isn’t a free agent until after the 2024 season. He hit 36 home runs last year en route to a .242/.327/.477 (.804) line in Arizona, winning a Gold Glove award in the process.
If the reports that the Twins are willing to trade Luis Arráez are true, his .375 OBP and 7.1 percent K rate are fun to think about. Bonus: He has played both first base (529 innings) and left field (326 1/3 innings) at the big-league level, and has a 1.000 fielding percentage at both.
One other guy with experience at both positions is Seth Brown, who blasted 25 home runs for the A’s last year, but also had a strikeout rate of 26.3 percent, leading to a .305 on-base percentage.
Lastly, if they wanted to get super creative, they could inquire with the Blue Jays about Alejandro Kirk, who got on base at a .372 clip last season, hitting 14 home runs along the way. Kirk is a catcher, yes, but with Garver recovering from flexor tendon surgery, Texas could always platoon Kirk and Jonah Heim behind the plate while letting Garver and Lowe bounce back and forth between first base and designated hitter. Additionally, Kirk isn’t a free agent until after the 2026 season, so it would be a long-term investment. In this scenario, though, you’re still looking at a spring training competition among the incumbent left-field candidates, and the outfield has been specifically mentioned all winter. Combine that with the fact that the Blue Jays are unlikely to want to move Kirk, and this is also a bit of a long shot.
(File photo of Michael Conforto: Gregory Fisher / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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