This MLB offseason has raised a ton of questions. None, however, have been more fun to discuss than a question regarding next year’s offseason: How much money is Shohei Ohtani going to get?
With the volatile free agent market right now, and the long deals being shelled out to players in their 30s, it’s easy to wonder what someone like Ohtani will get. He’ll only be 29-years-old when he enters free agency next year.
It’s difficult to gauge the value of Ohtani, because everything will feel too low. Ohtani was one of the best hitters in baseball last season, having a higher OPS than Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto. He also hit more home runs than Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corey Seager.
On the pitching side, he was also better than most, finishing on the All-MLB First Team as one of the five best starting pitchers in all of baseball. He had a better ERA than Max Fried, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes, and more strikeouts than Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish. How do you possibly value a guy like that?
The easy answer is to say he’ll get a blank check and pretty much decide how much he wants. But that’s too easy of an answer. The slightly less easy answer is saying he’ll get the largest contract in MLB history. But that feels like a given, too. So instead, I’ll turn to MLB insider Jeff Passan, who gave his thoughts on what Ohtani’s deal could look like on the Pat McAfee Show last week.
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“[Shohei Ohtani] and Juan Soto are primed to potentially become the first $500 million athletes,” Passan said.
Ohtani’s teammate on the Angels, Mike Trout, currently holds the record for the largest contract in MLB history valued at $426.5 million. Considering Ohtani is hitting at a similar clip to Trout, and is also a top five pitcher in baseball, $500 million seems like a starting point.
Like I said earlier, Ohtani will be 29-years-old when he enters free-agency next offseason. Aaron Judge, who will turn 31 at the start of next season, just signed a nine-year, $360 million mega deal, valued at $40 million per season. So you have to expect Ohtani will get a higher AAV, and potentially more years.
If it were to be a 10-year deal, it doesn’t seem out of the question to say it could be worth $500 million, for an astonishing AAV of $50 million. While he may not continue to pitch late into his career, the first few years of that deal will feel like a steal, as you’re getting a top 10 player in baseball on both sides of the ball.
Next offseason, Ohtani will have 30 teams fighting over him in one of the most epic bidding wars in sports history. All the big spenders will be throwing money his way, raising his value with each new offer.
Ohtani’s free agency is going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. Wherever he goes — if he decides to leave the Angels — he could become instant favorites to win it all in 2024. But Angels fans, I don’t mean to scare you. This is all still a year away. So for now, sit back, relax and enjoy the show that is the great Shohei Ohtani. There may never be someone like him again.
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