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LeBrun: The NHL goalie carousel’s early hits, misses, surprises and flops

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Let me reiterate a sentiment I’ve shared before over the past year or two: I don’t think NHL front offices have ever felt less confident about evaluating the goaltending position as they do today.

Which is strange because teams have never been blessed with as much data as they now have.

But the position has become more inconsistent and volatile than ever. Or at least that’s the feedback I get from so many hockey people. I think so much of it has to do with the offensive-minded brand of the NHL today — youth and offensive skill and a pace on the ice that’s 100 miles per hour. It puts goalies under constant duress.

It’s even more reason why it’s ridiculous for any netminder to play 60-plus games in the modern NHL.

And also reason, I think, that you’ll see very few long-term deals afforded to the position. True franchise goalies might still get them, but you’re talking about only a few players in that group.

Otherwise, you’re looking at two- or three-year deals, max, because of the uncertainty of a netminder repeating results in a consistent way.

All of which brings me to the point of this piece. Once again last offseason, we had teams taking gambles on the goalie carousel. No choice in the matter.

A quarter of the way into the season, let’s examine how some of those decisions have played out:

The Stanley Cup champs surprised us all with this one. Unable to re-sign Darcy Kuemper (now in Washington), they turned around July 7 at the draft in Montreal and acquired the Rangers’ backup for two third-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

The Rangers were never going to bring back the restricted free agent given the investment they already had in their franchise netminder, but the idea that the Avalanche would hand over the keys and a three-year, $3.4 million average-annual-value deal to a The 26-year-old who’d never won more than 17 games in an NHL season and was coming off an .898 save percentage and a 2.92 goals-against average? No, I didn’t see that coming.

The results so far? How about a .933 save percentage, second-best among qualifying NHL goalies (at least seven games)? The netminder’s .948 save percentage at even strength is tops in the league, and his 10.7 goals saved above expected at five-on-five (per MoneyPuck) is third.

“Alex has certainly done a good job in net for us,” Avs general manager Chris MacFarland said via text message Monday. “In fact, both goalies have played consistently right from Day 1 of camp. (Pavel) Francouz has been here a few years, but everything has been new to Georgiev.

“He has handled the transition very well.”

Um, I’d say.

Discarded in Washington, Vanecek’s fresh start in New Jersey has worked out wonderfully. The 26-year-old Czech goalie, who signed a three-year deal with a $3.4 million AAV after his trade from the Capitals, has a .923 save percentage that is top 10 among NHL goalies.

“He’s fit in great,” Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald said Monday. “He’s a great kid. He was so excited to be in New Jersey and get an opportunity. … He’s a battler. He loves playing. He’s a competitive guy. He never gives up on a shot. He’s not the biggest guy out there, but he just finds pucks and he competes. Honestly, he’s the first guy on the ice every day.

“He’s just a great kid and he fits in well in that locker room.”

I loved this acquisition from the moment it happened at the draft on July 8.

I get that his breakthrough in St. Louis last season, when he was a pending unrestricted free agent, was a small sample size, but it felt like whichever team got him would be happy as long as they didn’t overcommit. The three-year deal with a $4.75 million AAV is a moderate commitment so that if he doesn’t turn out to be a true No. 1, the Red Wings aren’t stuck with him. But the early returns are good. His .919 save percentage is 10th in the NHL. Again, it’s early, but so far, so good. The telling part will be how he handles the workload over an entire season. He started 38 games in St. Louis last season.

“He’s off to a good start,” Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman said Monday. “I don’t know how many games he’s going to play this year — whether it’s 40 or 55. There’s no real plan. Just like any other player, we’ll manage his ice time and make sure he’s good to go throughout the season.”

This has to be one of the biggest surprises of the season so far.

The former no. 1 in San Jose, Jones’ career was on shaky status after four straight seasons with a .900 or lower save percentage and declining win totals, bottoming out at 12 in 35 games in 2021-22. He’ll match that number with his next win this season, already 11-4-2.

Jones signed a one-year, $2 million deal as a backup replacement for the injured Chris Driedger, behind presumed starter Philipp Grubauer. That contract has already paid for itself.

Jones’ overall .903 save percentage isn’t great, but his .929 mark at even strength is top 10. And he’s saved 7.4 goals above expected at five-on-five (fifth in the NHL).

“He has played real well,” Kraken GM Ron Francis said via text message Monday. “Grubi was hurt, and he stepped up in his absence. I wouldn’t say he has been overly flashy but rather just real solid, game in and game out, which has allowed him and the team to have success.

“He looks calm and confident in the pipes, and (it’s) good to see him being rewarded.”

The Maple Leafs’ decision to completely revamp their one-two punch in goal certainly received plenty of attention. There was probably no bigger gamble on the NHL goalie carousel than Toronto’s.

I actually really liked the Samsonov decision, at one year and $1.8 million — a total upside play, with no real commitment. Trading for Murray was a little more perplexing, given how it went for him in Ottawa. And of course, getting hurt right away at the start of the regular season fed the narrative about him. But here’s the weird thing about it all: The Leafs, as a team, are fifth in the NHL at five-on-five save percentage (93.1 percent). Of course, the play in front of the goalies is a big factor in that. From our Leafs beat writer Jonas Siegel in his Monday Morning Leafs Report piece Monday:

“Only the notoriously stingy Hurricanes have a better five-on-five defensive shot rate than the Leafs in November.”

Murray and Samsonov both have identical .921 save percentages. Very good. But both have also already gotten hurt this season. Not good. And that’s the concern that’s going to hang over this tandem as the season goes on, especially closer to playoff time: durability.

No one is harder on himself than Campbell, who is such a likable dude and so honest in his media sessions.

So far his transition to Edmonton from Toronto has been nothing short of a disaster: his .875 save percentage is 54th among NHL goalies who have appeared in at least seven games this season. Only the Sharks’ Kaapo Kahkonen (.871) and Blue Jackets’ Elvis Merzlikins (.864) have been worse.

You wonder why the Leafs didn’t try harder to re-sign Campbell, and there’s no question that term was the biggest issue in that conversation. This isn’t going out on a limb, obviously, but I do believe Campbell will straighten things out and look more like the guy we saw the past few seasons in Toronto. There’s a clear adjustment to getting used to how the Oilers play in front of him. They’re no defensive juggernaut. Only Anaheim, Columbus, Arizona and Chicago have allowed more shots on goal per game (33.7) so far this season.

But as far as goalie first impressions go with a new team, yikes. Year 1 of a five-year, $25 million contract…

Darcy Kuemper, Capitals

Speaking of big contracts, the Capitals punted on Vanecek and Samsonov and brought in the Cup champion Kuemper on a five-year deal with a $5.25 million AAV. He’s been OK so far this season. His .914 save percentage is tied for 20th in the league, and he’s saved 3.4 goals above expected at five-on-five (18th). So, OK. Not great, but OK. And I mean, no team has been hammered harder by key injuries than Washington, so that’s affected what’s happening in front of him on a nightly basis.

He started only eight games after missing the first part of the season with an injury. His .919 save percentage is tied for 10th in the league, and he’s saved 3.8 goals more than expected. The Senators are not a good defensive team, to say the least, so they need their goalies to steal some moments. Talbot was very solid in beating the Ducks and Kings over the weekend.

Let’s see if he can get on a real roll here for an Ottawa team that really needs it.

(Top photo of Jack Campbell: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

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