CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Mets’ estimated payroll for the 2023 season is $420 million. It is more than the combined payrolls of the Rays, A’s, Orioles, Royals, Reds and Pirates for the same season.
Steve Cohen, the Mets owner, is already on the hook for $75 million in penalties for blowing past the last luxury tax threshold of $293 million that was part of the last basic agreement.
Six teams will start the upcoming season with a payroll less than $75 million.
The Mets have spent most of Cohen’s money on pitchers:
- Closer Edwin Diaz: five years, $102 million.
- RHP Justin Verlander: two years, $86.7 million.
- RHP Kodai Senga: five years, $75 million.
- LHP Jose Quintana: two years, $26 million.
- RHP David Robertson: one year, $10 million.
Following the 2021 season, Cohen signed right-hander Max Scherzer to a three-year $130 million deal. Not to ignore the rest of the roster, this winter the Mets re-signed outfielder Brandon Nimmo to an eight-year $162 million deal and catcher Omar Narvaez to a one-year $8 million deal.
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It has been a wild and free-spending offseason for MLB’s ruling class. Travis Sawchik, from FanGraphs, crunched the numbers and figured out that six teams are responsible for 75% of the $2.52 billion spent on free agents so far this winter. The six teams are the Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Giants, Padres and Phillies.
Much of the money — besides the millions thrown at outfielders Aaron Judge and Nimmo — has gone to starting pitchers and shortstops.
The starting pitching market runs a lot deeper than Jacob deGrom signing with Texas for five years and $185 million with Texas; Carlos Rodon, six years for $162 million with the Yankees and the shorter, but just as expensive deals for Verlander and Chris Bassitt, three years and $63 million with Toronto.
Middle of the road starters such as Sean Manaea (two years, $25 million with the Giants), Jameson Taillon (four years, $68 million with the Cubs), Taijuan Walker (four years $72 million with the Phillies), Zach Eflin (three years , $40 million with the Rays), Ross Stripling (two years, $25 million with the Giants), Kyle Gibson (one year, $10 million with Baltimore) and Noah Snydergaard (one-year, $13 million with the Dodgers) have shaken the money tree hard.
From a shortstop’s point of view, this has been a two-year heater. Starting with Corey Seager’s 10-year $325 million deal with Texas after the 2021 season, things have rarely been better for shortstops.
This offseason has seen Carlos Correa sign with the Giants for $350 million for 13 years, Trea Turner sign with the Phillies for $300 million for 11 years and Xander Bogaerts sign with the Padres for 11 years and $280 million. Free agent Dansby Swanson is still unsigned.
The money and the years involved are staggering. And the age old question has to be asked one more time: How do teams clinging to MLB’s lower rungs of the financial ladder compete?
Regarding starting pitchers, the Guardians don’t have all the answers, but they’ve managed to stay competitive because they knew they couldn’t compete for starters on the free agent market. Drafting Triston McKenzie in 2015 and Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale in 2016 made them look smart, but they were committed to this long before that.
Acquiring and developing Cal Quantrill, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger was important. Bringing Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges to the big leagues as starters before moving them to the bullpen helped solidify the staff. Getting a look at prospects Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Cody Morris and Konnor Pilkington last season provided data for the big-league coaching staff.
The rest of baseball — the rich and poor — has taken notice. Matt Blake, Yankees pitching coach, Ruben Niebla, San Diego’s pitching coach and Brian Sweeney, the Royals pitching coach, were all hired from Cleveland’s pitching group in the last four years.
Down below the lights are still on in Cleveland’s pitching factory. Four of their top 10 prospects, according to MLB pipeline, are starting pitchers — Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen. In the 2021 draft, the Guardians drafted 21 players, 18 of them pitchers.
It’s unknown if Cleveland’s strategy towards shortstops was as targeted as starting pitching, but over the last several years they have shopped heavily in middle infielders. If 2023 is shortstop Amed Rosario’s last year in Cleveland — he’s a free agent after the season — the Guardians may have to hold a lottery to see who replaces him. Andres Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena and Angel Martinez are all waiting.
The Guardians payroll is expected to push $90 million this season, a jump from $68 million in 2022.
In a game where some teams can’t top spending, the Guardians have found a way to win while controlling their payroll. It is dependent on a steady flow of talent because at today’s prices there is little hope of keeping players such as Bieber in a Cleveland uniform once they approach or hit free agency.
Beiber will be a free agent after the 2024 season.
Look into the crystal ball
Baseball America projected the Guardians starting lineup to look like this in 2026: C Bo Naylor, 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Gimenez, 3B Ramirez, SS Rocchio, LF Steven Kwan, CF Chase DeLauter, RF Will Brennan, DH George Valera, RHP Bieber, RHP McKenzie, RHP Espino, RHP Williams, RHP Quantril and Closer Emmanuel Clase.
Names to remember:
- Oscar Mercado, who made the Guardians opening day roster in 2022 before signing a minor league deal with St. Louis after last season, is scheduled to play for Colombia in the WBC.
- Ernie Clement, who played 63 games with the Guards in 2022, was recently designated for assignment by the A’s.
- Jake Bauers, who played for Cleveland from 2019 through 2021, has signed a minor league deal with the Yankees.
- Abraham Almonte, who played with Cleveland from 2015 through 2017, has signed a minor league deal with the Mets after failing to pass a physical with a Korean team.
- Tommy Hunter, who pitched for Cleveland in 2016, signed a minor league deal with the Mets.
- JP Feyereisen, drafted by Cleveland in 2014, was traded from Tampa Bay to the Dodgers after having surgery on his right shoulder.
- Dan Fiorva, who caught the Indians in 1988, was rehired as the Astros quality control coach.
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