With just four weeks remaining in the 2022 NFL regular season, the AFC and NFC playoff races are heating up. My NFL simulator has three teams fighting for what seems to be two spots in the AFC, none of which have a greater than a 51.0 percent chance. The NFC might be the better of the two races as it seems to be a four-team race for two spots, and none of those four teams have a greater than a 61.1 percent chance to make the postseason.
Five teams entered the week with a chance to clinch playoff berths, and the 49ers did just that Thursday by beating Seattle and winning the NFC West (and dropping Seattle’s likelihood of making the playoffs from 61.1 percent to 42.3 percent). San Francisco joins the Eagles in the field. Here are the scenarios for the other four teams in that group:
• The Bills are in with a win Saturday night against the Dolphins or with a tie and a combination of losses by the Chargers, Patriots or Jets.
• The Chiefs win the AFC West by beating the Texans on Sunday or with a loss by the Chargers or ties by both the Chiefs and Chargers. The Chiefs could still clinch a playoff berth this week with a tie and losses by the Jets and Patriots or losses by the Dolphins, Patriots and a Jets tie or losses by the Dolphins and Jets and a Patriots tie.
• The Cowboys are in with a win Sunday at Jacksonville. They are also in with a tie and the Giants and Commanders not ending in a tie, the Seahawks losing or tying, a Seahawks loss and Lions loss or tie, or a Seahawks loss and Commanders loss.
• The Vikings clinch the NFC North by beating or tying the Colts on Saturday. The Vikings also clinch if Detroit loses or ties Sunday.
Let’s take a look at the most meaningful games this week for the AFC and NFC playoff races and how each result would affect a team’s playoff chances.
Please note that these game results are independent of any other game during this week of games. For example, a Lions win against the Jets would not have a guaranteed result from the 49ers and Seahawks games. In the simplest of terms, this is a measure of the playoff impact that a game has at this very point in time.
Dolphins at Bills, 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday
Pre-Week 15 odds: Dolphins 80.9 percent | Bills >99.9 percent
What if the Dolphins win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
94.4 percent |
+13.5 percent |
|
|
99.7 percent |
-0.2 percent |
What if the Bills win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
74.8 percent |
-6.1 percent |
|
|
100.0 percent |
+0.1 percent |
Cowboys at Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Pre-Week 15 odds: Cowboys 100 percent Jaguars 13.4 percent
What if the Cowboys win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
100.0 percent |
0.0 percent |
|
|
8.8 percent |
-4.6 percent |
What if the Jaguars win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
100.0 percent |
0.0 percent |
|
|
25.8 percent |
+12.4 percent |
Lions at Jets, 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Pre-Week 15 odds: Lions 53.5 percent | Jets 31.8 percent
What if the Lions win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
69.7 percent |
+16.2 percent |
|
|
19.8 percent |
-12.0 percent |
What if the Jets win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
39.4 percent |
-14.1 percent |
|
|
40.8 percent |
+9.0 percent |
Titans at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Pre-Week 15 odds: Titans 88.1 percent | Chargers 51.2 percent
What if the Titans win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
95.4 percent |
+7.5 percent |
|
|
30.8 percent |
-20.4 percent |
What if the Chargers win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
80.5 percent |
-7.6 percent |
|
|
71.0 percent |
+19.8 percent |
Giants at Commanders, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
Pre-Week 15 odds: Giants 27.5 percent | Commanders 56.5 percent
What if the Giants win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
55.7 percent |
+28.2 percent |
|
|
25.7 percent |
-30.8 percent |
What if the Commanders win?
| Team | Playoff odds | Change |
|---|---|---|
|
11.8 percent |
-15.8 percent |
|
|
73.4 percent |
+16.9 percent |
(Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images)
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