Any time our model points out or leans towards an over, I am just gleaming. My mood cannot be affected for the day.
I’ve become such a curmudgeon when it comes to NHL scoring as a value better, but when we can finding value in scoring? Oh yeah.
But first…another under.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators
Under 6.5 (-114) – 2 Stars
These two lines are both about goaltending.
This would have been shocking to say preseason, but we’ll see positives in goal tonight in Ottawa. That’s exactly what the Senators were hoping for when flipping Filip Gustavsson for Cam Talbot this offseason. Talbot has rewarded them by posting 4.67 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), which is the 20th-best mark in the NHL.
Montreal has the same keeper tandem as last year, but they’ve largely delivered. It’s confirmed to be Sam Montembeault in net for the Canadiens tonight as they’ve chosen to save Jake Allen for the second half of the back-to-back tomorrow against Anaheim. Surprisingly, Montembeault has delivered 2.91 GSAx himself in limited action.
Our model sees this Senators team as incredibly similar to Detroit, so it’s not hard to see why it likes the under here. Only five and three total goals, respectively, were scored in the Canadiens’ first two games against the Red Wings.
Especially when factoring in some tired legs on that side, our model believes the under here delivers 59.1% of the time against these 52.9% implied odds.
Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild
Over 6.0 (-118) – 2 Stars
Speaking of those Red Wings, they’re the subject of the rare over popping from numberFire’s model.
That’s because they burned Ville Husso (10.27 GSAx; ninth-best in hockey) in last night’s 1-0 home loss to Carolina. That’ll hand the keys to the crease over to Alex Nedeljkovic tonight, and that’s been bad news for Detroit. Nedeljkovic has the seventh-worst GSAx (-10.21) in the NHL.
Joining him in the bottom 10 is Minnesota’s Marc-Andre Fleury. The aging netminder has logged another poor season (-6.57 GSAx) following last year’s clunker in Chicago.
Just 29% of tickets are on this rare contrarian over when betting hockey. These squads are both top-10 ones in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes, and they’ve cashed plenty of unders this season. The problem is — especially for the Wings — all that solid work by the skaters can go down the drain in seconds with goaltending this poor.
Our model sees at least six goals here 63.3% of the time. While that does factor in the chance of a push, it’s still a worthwhile wager at these 54.1% implied odds.
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