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Odds and NHL picks Tuesday

The Detroit Red Wings are sticking around in the NHL Eastern Conference playoff picture for now.

After a 7-3-2 start to the season, Detroit alternated a four-game losing streak with a four-game winning streak, then proceeded to drop its next three games before capturing a win on Sunday to halt its latest skid.

It’s no surprise that an upstart team like the Wings are inconsistent, but there are some signs that Detroit is finding some decent form of late.

The Red Wings look to pull an upset against the Lightning Tuesday at 7 pm ET on ESPN+.

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Ben Chiarot #8 of the Detroit Red Wings
Ben Chiarot #8 of the Detroit Red Wings
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Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction

Through the first 15 games of the season, it looked like Detroit’s hot start was a bit of smoke and mirrors. The Wings were getting results, but they were generally getting outplayed at 5-on-5. Through their first 15 contests, the Red Wings were 29th in the NHL in shot attempt rate, 28th in expected goal percentage and 26th in high-danger chance rate. In other words, Detroit was getting by thanks to some combination of good finishing, solid goaltending, and decent luck.

But things have started to change a bit in Motown.

Over the past three weeks, the Red Wings are starting to play a better brand of hockey at 5-on-5 and push play in the right direction. Over their last 10 games, Detroit ranks 12th in shot attempt percentage, 12th in expected goals rate and 21st in high-danger chance share. Those aren’t blinding numbers by any stretch, but they do show that this team is trending in the right direction.

Betting on the NHL?

Alex Killorn #17 of the Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn #17 of the Tampa Bay Lightning
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Tampa Bay is also trending in the right direction with eight wins in its last 10 games and terrific 5-on-5 numbers in that span, but this is a pretty big number to lay against a team that is playing some of its best hockey. the season.

The Red Wings don’t have the depth or the goaltending to contend with the Lightning over the long term, and the odds tell you that the Bolts are far more likely to win this game than the Red Wings, but Detroit is showing the type of form you look for in a live underdog.

As long as Ville Husso gets the nod in goal for the Wings, they’re worth a bet at this number.

Red Wings vs. Lightning pick

Red Wings +200 (FanDuel)

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