There are weeks when identifying the premier game requires a degree of rationalization because the schedule is short on excitement. Then there’s this week’s slate, which might be the most impressive of the season. There are five games on Sunday between teams with winning records (and there was a sixth on Thursday), so 75 percent of the teams with winning records are Week 13 opponents.
I’m still nursing a winning record with these picks, although last week put a dent in the mark. Here’s this week’s attempt to get the record back on track.
Last week’s record: 2-4 overalls; 1-3 versus the spread; 0-1 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 1-0 on player props.
Season record: 37-33-2 overall; 28-18-2 versus the spread; 3-9 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 6-6 on player props.
Premier Sunday game: Chiefs -2 at Bengals
The Bengals upset the Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game. It won’t happen again, with an offense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value above average) and Patrick Mahomes ready for what the Bengals defense presents. The trends don’t all favor Kansas City — Cincinnati is 8-3 against the spread this season and now gets Ja’Marr Chase back — but the Chiefs are the superior team (they’re the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl for the first time this season). There’s not much advantage with the point spread on Cincinnati’s end. The over/under of 53 points suggests this will be a shootout, which is why I lean towards the better offense that averages 3.7 more points per game. Also worth noting: The Chiefs average 35.2 points per game on the road, so they’ll be able to handle this environment.
This line moved from the Falcons being favored on the look-ahead line, and it’s with good reason. The Steelers showed life in recent weeks with two wins and staying close against Cincinnati. That coincided with the return of TJ Watt. The Falcons have lost three of their past four games and were held to 13 points in Washington last week. More concerning is their pressure rate, which is ranked No. 31 in the NFL. They’ll have a hard time getting to Kenny Pickett and won’t find it any easier scoring on offense. However, pay attention to Watt’s status.
Underdog on the moneyline: Jets +130 at Vikings
It’s a good sign for an underdog when it’s 13 spots ahead of the favorite in DVOA and has a point differential that is 29 points better. The Jets are hard to figure out with Mike White, who had the NFL’s third-best passer rating of the season last week. Perhaps he comes down to earth against a veteran defense on the road, but the Vikings are more vulnerable than a typical 9-2 team. I took the Vikings in The Athletic‘s straight-up picks, but if you give me +130 odds on the Jets, that’s enticing. This is the best moneyline play of the week.
Sunday prime-time game: Cowboys -10.5 at Colts
The double-digit point spread initially worried me, but the Cowboys have become accustomed to winning big. Five of their eight wins have been by at least 12 points, and they have a point differential of plus-92. The Colts have lost two games by double digits and have scored into the 20s just once in the past six games. Their defense may limit the Cowboys to keep the margin within single digits, but I have little confidence in their offense keeping pace with Dallas.
Monday prime-time game: Bucs -3.5 vs. Saints
There’s little excuse for how the Bucs managed the clock late in last week’s loss to the Browns, but I’d still take them over a Saints team that was shut out by San Francisco. The Saints are 0-3 as road underdogs this season, haven’t covered in any of those games and have lost by an average margin of 10.3 points. Tampa Bay shook off its Saints woes in Week 2 with a 20-10 win. The Bucs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine games, so it’s not as if Tom Brady’s group gives much confidence. But I’ll take Brady in a game he needs to win over an eight-loss Saints team, even when laying 3.5 points.
Player prop: Jamaal Williams under 57.5 rushing yards
Williams is making fantasy football owners happy this season and has topped 57.5 rushing yards in five of his past six games, so why am I going with the under? The Jaguars’ defense ranks No. 13 in DVOA against the run and No. 30 against the pass; it would behoove the Lions to try to move the ball through the air against Jacksonville. When Detroit runs, the committee backfield could be more prevalent; D’Andre Swift is off the injury report and could see a bigger chunk of playing time after failing to log more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps since returning from injury in Week 8. Reports out of Detroit suggest Swift will see more work, which could make it tougher for Williams to top this mark.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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