More than 250 players around the Majors are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, although that number figures to drop by Friday night, when all 30 teams must tender contracts to such players.
Players tendered contracts will have until Jan. 13 to work out new deals with their clubs before exchanging arbitration figures. The two sides may still work on a deal after that date, although many will wind up going to arbitration hearings.
Players not tendered contracts by Friday’s 8 pm ET deadline will become free agents.
Which players might be joining the free-agent ranks by the weekend? Here’s a look at 11 potential non-tender candidates, listed alphabetically.
(All arbitration estimates are from Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
Jorge Alfaro, C, Padres
Alfaro seemed to have developed into a solid offensive backstop in 2019, slugging a career-high 18 home runs with a .736 OPS in 130 games for the Marlins. Since then, the 29-year-old has 14 home runs and a .642 OPS in 205 games, and with Austin Nola and Luis Campusano, the Padres have no need for Alfaro, who is projected to earn $3.225 million in his final year of arbitration.
Brian Anderson, OF, Marlins
After posting an .811 OPS from 2019-20, Anderson has seen his offense decline over the past two years, with a .715 OPS in 2021 and a .657 OPS in 2022. Health issues have limited Anderson to 165 games over the past two seasons, and with a projected salary of $6.75 million, the Marlins could decide they have better options — and better ways to spend that money.
Cody Bellinger, OF, Dodgers
The 2017 National League Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL Most Valuable Player, Bellinger has struggled badly over the past two years, posting a .611 OPS with 29 home runs in 239 games. Bellinger signed a $17 million deal last offseason to avoid arbitration, but with a projected salary of more than $18 million and a pair of subpar seasons in 2021-22, the Dodgers could decide to spend that money elsewhere rather than on the hope that Bellinger will rediscover his old form.
Jeimer Candelario, SS, 3B, Tigers
Candelario appeared to be on the upswing after posting an .872 OPS in the shortened 2020 season, then followed it up with a .795 OPS with an AL-high 42 doubles in 2021. Last season was a different story: He had a .633 OPS with a woeful .272 on-base percentage, not to mention a -6 Outs Above Average at third base. He’s projected to earn $6.35 million in his final year of arbitration, which could be more than Detroit is willing to pay for that performance.
Adam Engel, OF, White Sox
Engel is a strong defender, but his offense regressed this season (.579 OPS), dropping him to a negative fWAR (-0.1) for the first time in his career. He’s only projected to earn $2.15 million in his final year of arbitration, but that might be too high for a defensive replacement.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, Yankees
Kiner-Falefa is projected to earn $6.25 million in his third of four arbitration years, and after an underwhelming season that saw him benched in some key postseason games, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Yankees cut ties with the infielder. Kiner-Falefa has never been known for his bat, but his fielding was shaky in 2022 (-4 Outs Above Average), so the Yankees could decide to give either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe a shot to win the shortstop job at a much lower price.
Kevin Newman, INF, Pirates
Newman is projected to earn $3.5 million in his second of three arbitration-eligible seasons, which would currently rank as one of the Pirates’ top five salaries. With Rodolfo Castro and Oneil Cruz seemingly entrenched as the team’s starters at second base and shortstop, Newman is a man without a position, making it likely that Pittsburgh will non-tender him. Since posting an .800 OPS over 130 games in 2019, Newman has a .605 OPS in 270 games since the start of 2020.
Emilio Pagán, RHP, Twins
Pagan has struggled to find consistency since his strong 2019 season, posting a 4.61 ERA in 148 appearances since the start of 2020. He’s projected to earn $4.25 million in his final year of arbitration, which seems like a steep price given his performance over the past three seasons.
Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals
An All-Star in 2021, Reyes has battled a number of injuries throughout his career, including a shoulder issue that kept him from pitching in 2022 and required surgery in May. It’s unlikely that he will be ready for the start of 2023, and with a projected salary of $2.9 million in his final year of arbitration, the Cardinals could decide to cut bait.
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Mets
Smith has been unable to carry the momentum from his breakout 2020 season (10 home runs, 42 RBIs, .993 OPS in 50 games), posting a .667 OPS in 145 games in 2021 and a .560 OPS in just 58 games last season . Smith is projected to earn $4.1 million in his third of four arbitration-eligible years, and without a clear spot for him in the lineup, he seems like a good bet to be non-tendered.
Luke Voit, 1B/DH, Nationals
The Nationals acquired Voit in last summer’s Juan Soto trade with the Padres after Eric Hosmer vetoed his inclusion in the deal, but the 1B/DH didn’t do much to show Washington he should be a part of the club’s future. Voit — who turns 32 in February — hit nine homers with a .676 OPS in 53 games with the Nats, and with a projected $6.5 million salary in his third of four arbitration years, Washington could look elsewhere to fill its DH spot.
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