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NHL betting market report for Tuesday, November 15th
Recap: Los Angeles grabbed a 2-1 lead early in the game, but it didn’t last. The Kings made a late push, but it was just a tease, as they were not able to complete the comeback and lost 6-5.
Wins: 27 Losses: 26 Units Won: +1.09 units ROI: +2.3 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Tuesday’s Bets: Dallas Stars +135 (see write up for bet amounts)
Note: I’m traveling today and won’t be around to update the report.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Dallas Stars (+135) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-155)
Jake Oettinger has picked up right where he left off in last year’s playoffs. The 23-year-old goaltender has posted a .938 save percentage in nine games this season and has saved the Stars approximately seven goals above expected. He’s a big reason why the Stars have had success this season, but the team has been good in front of him. At even strength, Dallas ranks 11th in expected goals, fifth in shot attempt percentage, and only two teams (New Jersey and Boston) have scored goals at a higher rate. Oettinger has been great, but he’s also getting lots of offensive support and that’s a winning combination. I doubt the team will continue to score 60 percent of the goals as they’ve had a relatively easy schedule so far, but then again, so have the Lightning, and they haven’t been as successful.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is still one of the best goaltenders in the world, but he hasn’t been a world beater. In fact, of the 23 goaltenders that have faced at least 400 unblocked shot attempts so far this season, Vasilevskiy’s .889 save percentage ranks 16th.th, but that is due in part to the Lightning’s poor defensive metrics. Tampa Bay currently grades out as a bottom-10 team in expected goals against and average, at best, in many other categories. The Lightning rank 15th in goals for, and 22n.d in goals against. They also rank 16th in shot attempt percentage and 18th in expected goals and injuries to a couple of defenders could put them at a bigger disadvantage on Tuesday. My NHL betting model estimates that fair odds for the home team are -123, and that means the value is on the road team at +135 with the assumption that their star goaltender (Oettinger) will be guarding the cage.
Notes: Erik Cernak and Cal Foote are regarded as day-to-day heading into Tuesday’s game.
Bet: Dallas Stars +135 Stake: 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-105)
The Penguins’ offense is trending back in the right direction, having scored four goals in three straight games, and they even earned a win over the Maple Leafs in Toronto last week. The Penguins have graded out well through the lens of modern hockey statistics like expected goals, so it seems like it’s only a matter of time before they start putting it all together and start winning some games. Toronto’s offense has only scored more than three goals in two out of their 15 games this season, and while their defense has been better than the Penguins, Matt Murray is returning to the crease on Tuesday after a long layoff and that could be troublesome. It’s unclear who will start in goal for Pittsburgh, but either way, I can justify making a small bet on the home team. Casey DeSmith has been better than Tristan Jarry this season and given that he was higher on the depth chart a couple of years ago, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to start on Tuesday. My NHL betting model suggests that the Penguins should be priced around -115.
Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins -105 Stake: 0.525 units to win 0.5 units
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