We struck out on our pair of NBA best bets on Thursday after a 2-1 showing on Wednesday. That’s what happens when superstar Luka Doncic inexplicably no-shows for the second straight game and the Heat collapse in the fourth quarter in an immensely winnable spot.
No matter – we’re back at it on Friday with a jam-packed slate of games, led by some quintessential fade opportunities against teams that have struggled early in the season.
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s slate at BetMGM:
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NBA Friday odds, picks (via BetMGM)
- Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves
- Cavaliers +2.5 @ Warriors
- Kings -4.5 @ Lakers
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves prediction and analysis
We’ve made a killing fading the Timberwolves this year, even if we have hopes of this team finding its rhythm later in the season. To this point, though, it simply hasn’t happened.
Minnesota’s starting lineup has posted a net rating of -6.2 through 152 minutes – the second-worst mark among the 15 most commonly used five-man units across the league. That group is making just three 3-pointers per game at a 33.7% clip and has posted a paltry 99.7 offense rating; for comparison, the 30th-ranked Lakers own a team offensive rating of 103.2.
Those scoring woes have plagued the T-Wolves amid a 1-5 run, with one win over the Rockets (2-10) separating five losses by at least nine points. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have won four of their last five and have enough punch offensively to outlast their struggling foe.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves pick: Grizzlies -4.5 (BetMGM)
Warriors vs. Cavaliers prediction and analysis
This feels like one of the biggest oversights of the year in the betting market, as there’s no reason a healthy Cavaliers squad should be catching points from these struggling Warriors, given what we’ve seen to this point of the year.
Even after a pair of head-scratching losses this week, Cleveland still ranks second in net rating (+8.9) with a sterling 8-3 record against the spread, fourth-best in the NBA. It’s been a different story for Golden State (3-8 ATS), which ranks 25th in net rating (-3.6) and had lost five straight before Monday’s win over the Kings.
That lone win doesn’t solve this team’s scoring issues outside of Stephen Curry, who won’t have much room to create in the lane against the Cavaliers’ elite interior defense. The reigning Finals MVP is always a 3-point eruption away from rendering your bet moot, but I’ll gladly take the points on the better team in this matchup.
Warriors vs. Cavaliers pick: Cavaliers +2.5 (BetMGM)
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Lakers vs. Kings prediction and analysis
A miserable start to the season has gotten worse for the Lakers, who will be without superstar LeBron James (thigh) for the second time this year after he sat out Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz.
His latest injury comes at a brutal time for Los Angeles, which has lost four straight by at least 13 points – including a season-worst 23-point loss in Utah in James’ only other absence this season. That should come as no surprise: since James joined the team in 2018-19, the Lakers are 31-54 without him and have been outscored by 3.7 points on average in those 85 contests.
Conversely, the Kings have rallied from an 0-4 start to win four of their last six games, highlighted by a 7-point win over the Cavaliers on Wednesday. This Sacramento squad is balanced offensively and has the horses to make life difficult for short-handed LA
Lakers vs. Kings pick: Kings -4.5 (BetMGM)
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