LAS VEGAS — With four star free-agent shortstops providing excellent but somewhat comparable choices for the nine or so teams in play for them, the new American League single-season home run record-holder understandably wants to maximize his value and set a positional player record, and two of the three top starting pitchers seeking record or near-record deals at advanced ages, most of the very top of a sterling free-agent market may take awhile.
It’s very early in the offseason (even earlier than usual for the GM meetings, as the World Series just ended), but here are a couple thoughts on the best players on a market filled with stars…
1. Aaron Judge
The Giants look like the biggest threat to the Yankees, with Giants baseball president Farhan Zaidi making clear that they are in on the big free agents to win them and outfield their biggest team need beyond another top starter. Zaidi mentioned that San Francisco can be “polarizing” for ballplayers (who may not appreciate the liberal leanings) but hopefully pointed out that players from the Bay Area do well there, such as Brandon Crawford and Joc Pederson. That was perhaps a hint for Judge, who is from Northern California, but as one rival agent pointed out, “Linden is not really the Bay Area.” Also, Judge moved to the Tampa area, where the Yankees train, so if anyone has a home-field edge it may be New York.
2. Trea Turner
While he says he will consider every team including the Dodgers, the belief (at least among Dodgers people) is that they still have to overcome his East Coast bias. If geography counts, the Phillies may have the advantage (his wife is from New Jersey). The Mets would work geographically, but that scenario is farfetched; it’d probably be easier to stay out west than convince a great shortstop to learn center field.
3. Carlos Correa
The Dodgers might even prefer Correa to their own Turner, but as reported here, they seem reluctant to bring in a hero of the scandalous 2017 Astros team that beat the Dodgers in that World Series. Don’t count out the incumbent Twins. While they aren’t in a big market, their owner is among the richest in the game. And they absolutely loved him. “He had a great time there,” his agent Scott Boras said. “It really turned out to be a great fit. It’s certainly something we’re going to discuss.”
4. Jacob deGrom
The market seems pretty limited, as the belief is he seeks to beat former Mets teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million record deal and he scores low for reliability, having played only one full season over the past two. He told the Rangers he likes them, but Zack Wheeler said he liked the Mets, too (deGrom himself hasn’t said that out loud). It feels like the Mets are willing to pay a fair wage — say, $35M a year — but if he wants to break the bank, he can break someone else’s bank.
5. Justin Verlander
While the Yankees were hopeful last year they could lure this big-time performer and his model wife Kate Upton to New York, they were discouraged when he took the same per-year salary to return to Texas. Going back again to the World Series-champion Astros is a nice option, and unlike their GM he seems to have a rapport with the owner.
6. Xander Bogaerts
The Red Sox are said to have gotten nowhere even in recent overtures, but he will have some great options. The Dodgers would make perfect sense, as might the Cubs, who seem very interested in adding a big piece and have the flexibility to move young star Nico Hoerner to second base, which becomes a more important position with the new shift ban.
7. Dansby Swanson
The Braves are believed to have opened with an in-season offer of about $100M, and while the Georgia native would presumably love to stay, that doesn’t feel like it’s in the ballpark. One common guess heard down here is $140M to stay home, which is the same pay both Javier Baez and Trevor Story got (although those deals don’t look too good right now). The Dodgers will surely be in on him, as they ultimately were with his former Braves teammate Freddie Freeman.
8. Carlos Rodon
The Rangers are playing at the top of the market, and still only 30, he may fit the rising team that still looks a year or two away better than deGrom. He will engender a ton of interest after his big year in the Bay, and presumably the Giants, who have deep pockets, will be among the players. The rival Dodgers also tried for him a year ago.
9. Brandon Nimmo
He timed his free agency perfectly, having just completed his best season and qualifying for freedom at a time the next best center fielders are Adam Duvall and Kevin Kiermaier, both off rough seasons. The Mets are in. But Boras said “a majority” of teams have checked in. The Rays are an interesting one.
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