LAS VEGAS — Star Japanese players used to come with great intrigue. There was not a ton of film. Not every team had scouts roaming Japan to put eyeballs on the player.
So when Hideki Irabu, for example, was set to venture to MLB, he could be dubbed “The Japanese Nolan Ryan” and everyone went along for the ride. But when the name Kodai Senga recently was mentioned to one GM, he brought up not just video of every pitch Senga threw for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, but that MLB teams have access to the technology to precisely compare Senga’s every pitch through slow-motion and data capture programs to gauge how the right-hander’s repertoire compares to those of major leaguers.
Nevertheless, there are still unknowns with established stars from elsewhere coming to North America. And two are expected in this offseason market. Senga is a free agent, like any MLB free agent. He is expected to be officially announced as such in Japan on Friday (Thursday in the United States). Masataka Yoshida, a lefty-hitting outfielder who just excelled for the Orix Buffaloes, is expected to be posted in the next month.
With the help of major league team executives, agents and two former major leaguers — outfielder Joe McCarthy and starting pitcher Colin Rea — with experience playing in Japan, with or against Senga and Yoshida, here are profiles on the players, who are going to draw a lot of interest in the market:
KODAI SENGA
He will turn 30 in January, is a three-time All-Star and went 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA this year with 156 strikeouts in 144 innings. He is a Yu Darvish disciple, often training with him in the offseason in the US To better prepare for MLB, Senga began working with a Driveline Baseball (think pitch maximization and design) representative in Japan.
Multiple MLB officials painted the upside of a high-octane fastball that can reach triple digits and which Senga can maintain efficiently in the mid-90s for an entire start with one of the world’s best forkball/splits.
On the downside, Senga will have to improve his breaking ball in MLB, which has become a crazy slider. There is concern about a few nagging elbow injuries. And there are enough fastball command issues that some MLB execs wondered if he will become a closer. Beyond that, there are concerns about the transition from pitching every sixth day to every fifth day, leaving behind the tacky Japanese baseball (although MLB is experimenting with a tacky ball) and facing more stacked and powerful lineups. The excitement around Senga is not the same as for, say, Darvish or Irabu or Masahiro Tanaka.
But Rea, who was teammates with Senga, believes there should be.
“[Senga] is one of the most talented, physically gifted players I’ve ever played with,” Rea said. “His competitiveness on the mound is second to none and he works his butt off in between starts. He throws 100 and has a split that no one can touch. He’s constantly trying to improve every day. His English is also improving. He could be a star in MLB.”
McCarthy’s Orix team is in the same Pacific League as Softbank, so he saw Senga and took a pinch-hit against him this year. He called Senga “a special player”
Of Senga’s splitter, he said: “It has such inconsistent movement. It’ll tumble. It’ll shake. It’ll go left or right. So that’s what makes that pitch so special when a guy like him is able to control that. It makes it really tough for hitters.”
Rea said, regarding Senga transitioning to MLB: “He can be an ace depending on what team he signs with. He’s an outlier. The sky’s the limit. His body is so mobile, yet so strong that he can get in elite mechanical positions in his delivery. He’s got two elite pitches with flashes of a really good breaking ball. If he tightens up the breaking ball and makes them more consistent, he’s an ace.”
MASATAKA YOSHIDA
Yoshida is due to be posted — which means MLB teams will have 45 days (up from 30) to sign him and pay a compensation cost to his Japanese team. If Yoshida doesn’t sign in the window, he will return to his Japanese team.
Yoshida is among Japan’s best hitters with a lifetime slash line of .326/.419/.538. This season, it was .335/.447/.561, with 21 homers, 80 walks and 41 strikeouts. He hit two home runs in Japan Series Game 5, including a three-run walk-off homer.
The knock is that Yoshida, who will turn 30 in July, is not much of a baserunner or corner-outfield defender. His Orix teammate, McCarthy, agreed about the limitations, but added, “There are guys in MLB who are much greater [defensive] liabilities.”
Conversely, McCarthy raved about the lefty-swinger’s offense.
“He is as legit as they come,” McCarthy said. “He didn’t slump for five months. He can go gap to gap. He just constantly barrels up pitches. He is not physically impressive at all. He’s a smaller guy [5-foot-8, 175 pounds], but he has some of the most insane pop I’ve ever seen for someone of his stature. And again, it’s line to line for five months. He doesn’t chase. He doesn’t strike out. He’s not an all or nothing guy. He sees pitches. He sees the ball deep and he’s still able to hit with power. A bullpen guy would come in throwing 98-100 [mph] and you’d think, ‘OK, that’s like MLB, let’s see what he’s got.’ And the guy barreled that for power, too.”
The Yankees, among others, are looking for lefty hitters with strong bat-to-ball skills and Rea was so enthusiastic about Yoshida that he actually texted a series of clips of Yoshida hitting, including a homer off Rea.
“He’s an incredible hitter,” Rea said. “Yoshida impresses every game, every at-bat. He’s unique. He has great awareness of the strike zone. He always has good at-bats. He can hit for power and average. He’s a much better hitter than that [Seiya] Suzuki [who had a .770 OPS and 14 homers in 446 plate appearances as a 2002 rookie with the Cubs]. … There’s no reason he couldn’t be one of the best hitters in [MLB].”
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