As we are officially past the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, let’s take a look at the playoff pictures in the AFC and NFC at this point of the season.
I project the score for each game and the final win percentage for each team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
AFC Playoff Picture
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
|
6-2 |
12.6 |
98.6% |
|
|
6-2 |
12.2 |
97.6% |
|
|
5-3 |
9.7 |
91.8% |
|
|
6-3 |
10.7 |
88.2% |
|
|
6-3 |
10.4 |
83.4% |
|
|
5-3 |
9.1 |
54.8% |
|
|
5-4 |
9.0 |
54.7% |
|
|
6-3 |
9.0 |
46.5% |
|
|
5-4 |
9.0 |
41.3% |
|
|
3-5 |
7.7 |
15.4% |
|
|
3-6 |
6.5 |
9.7% |
|
|
3-5 |
7.0 |
7.0% |
|
|
3-5-1 |
6.5 |
4.8% |
|
|
2-6 |
6.4 |
4.6% |
|
|
2-6 |
5.8 |
1.5% |
|
|
3-5-1 |
3.6 |
0.0% |
While losing to the Jets doesn’t affect the Bills’ odds of reaching the playoffs too much (-1.1 percent change from last week), the biggest concern is the health of Josh Allen’s elbow. The Bills are the favorite to get 1-seed and thus receive the important bye and home field in the playoffs, but the uncertainty surrounding Allen’s health has put some doubt into that forecast.
Speaking of the Jets, they had the second biggest increase in playoff odds across the entire NFL at +16.8 percent. They are the eighth-most-likely team to make the playoffs in the AFC, so not quite in the playoffs, but right on the outside looking in. I have my reservations about the offense, mostly Zach Wilson, but the defense is looking more impressive after each week, and they’ve put themselves into a position to make a playoff push over the next two months. For context, my model gave the Jets just a 1.2-percent chance of making the playoffs after their Week 3 loss to the Bengals.
The AFC North has been a roller coaster through the first half of the season, but it should have plenty of drama down the stretch, definitely when looking at the Bengals. The defending AFC Champion Bengals have less than a coin flip’s chance to make the playoffs at this point (41.3 percent), and Ja’Marr Chase is likely out for the next few weeks. My model thinks the Bengals are good, but a few puzzling losses this season combined with a difficult schedule the rest of the way is how you end up out of the playoffs two weeks into November.
NFC Playoff Picture
| Team | Record | Projected wins | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
|
8-0 |
14.3 |
99.9% |
|
|
7-1 |
12.0 |
99.2% |
|
|
6-2 |
12.0 |
98.5% |
|
|
6-2 |
10.2 |
90.0% |
|
|
6-3 |
9.9 |
78.3% |
|
|
6-2 |
9.8 |
70.6% |
|
|
4-5 |
8.4 |
69.6% |
|
|
4-5 |
7.5 |
29.2% |
|
|
3-5 |
7.6 |
22.6% |
|
|
3-6 |
7.1 |
10.9% |
|
|
3-6 |
6.4 |
10.9% |
|
|
4-5 |
7.1 |
9.1% |
|
|
3-6 |
6.5 |
4.1% |
|
|
2-6 |
5.8 |
2.5% |
|
|
2-7 |
5.0 |
2.4% |
|
|
3-6 |
6.1 |
2.2% |
The NFC has been a mess all season long, but the playoff picture is starting to look uneventful. Seven teams have odds greater than 69 percent — four teams more than 90 percent — and the eighth most likely team, Atlanta, comes in at just 29.2 percent. Things got a little less interesting when Tom Brady and the Buccaneers stormed back to beat the Rams on Sunday. The Buccaneers saw their playoff odds increase by 15.3 percent, which was the third largest increase in the NFL last week. If that result was reversed, the NFC South race would be very interesting (it still is, to a degree), and the defending Super Bowl champs would be much more in the mix.
Speaking of the defending champions, the Rams saw a 15.3 percent decline in playoff odds after their loss to the Bucs, the second largest drop of the week. The Rams are now projected to make the playoffs just 22.6 percent of the time. My model didn’t have the highest expectations for the Rams heading into the season, as they were just 68.7 percent to make the playoffs with a clean slate. They have the third biggest decline in playoff odds since that time, behind the Packers and Colts.
The Packers. Sheesh. Where to start? After a disappointing loss to the Lions on Sunday, the Packers are now projected to make the playoffs just 10.9 percent of the time. That is down to an NFL-worst 81.7 percent since the beginning of the season. They’ve had injuries on defense, and Aaron Rodgers looks broken. They’re not eliminated, but the Packers will need a minor miracle to make it back to the NFC playoff scene.
The biggest gainer in playoff odds from the beginning of the season is housed in the NFC West, and it’s the Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith has been amazing, and the Seahawks have seen a 69.6-percent increase in playoff odds since before Week 1. They’re not the favorite to win the NFC West — the 49ers are — but the Seahawks are the fifth-most-likely team to make the NFC playoffs behind the Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys and 49ers. The schedule isn’t exactly easy, but it would take a lot of things to go wrong for the Seahawks to be left out of the playoffs this season.
(Photo: Norm Hall/Getty Images)
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