The news was a bolt from the blue and the deal was massive — historic, even. The Mets, just a few hours after their exclusive five-day negotiating window with their own free agents opened, inked star closer Edwin Diaz to a five-year deal worth $102 million.
The contract, which contains a full no-trade clause, an opt-out, and a team option for a sixth season, is the biggest ever given to a reliever in terms of both overall dollars and average annual value.
But the Mets striking fast and decisively while giving Diaz this enormous deal was not a surprise. It was expected.
After the season ended, Diaz made no secret about his desire to return to the Mets, and the Mets repeatedly made no secret about their desire to retain him — something that was reiterated by GM Billy Eppler last week.
Most are praising the Mets’ front office and owner Steve Cohen for their quick, decisive move on Diaz, and I’m part of that chorus.
Yes, there’s a risk when it comes to giving a shade over $20 million annually to a reliever for five years.
But the Mets didn’t give that deal to someone who appears to be in danger of a regression. They gave it to a 28-year-old (Diaz will turn 29 in March) who is at the height of his powers and is coming off one of the most dominant seasons any reliever has ever had.
And Diaz’s dominance in 2022 (and, really, since 2020) is backed up as real by the “regular” stats and pretty much any advanced stat you can find. He is for real.
Is there a chance Diaz’s stuff diminishes a bit near the end of his contract and he isn’t the absolute menace on the mound that he’s been over the last three seasons? Sure. But the deal was still a no-brainer.
It should also be pointed out that Diaz will be entering his age-33 season during the fifth and final guaranteed year of this contract. That’s far from over the hill for a closer. Look at Kenley Jansenwho was fantastic during his age-33 and age-34 seasons in 2021 and 2022.
With Diaz back in the fold, the Mets have added their closer back to a bullpen that will be in a lot of flux this offseason, with Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguezand Trevor Williams among the free agents.
The Mets still have plenty of work to do, but completing the Diaz deal this quickly gets a huge part of their offseason agenda out of the way and allows them to focus on what’s next. And what’s next will not include having to find a new closer
So … what is next?
In a piece that was published on Nov. 3, I ranked who I thought the Mets’ top 10 free agent targets should be this offseason. Diaz was No. 1, and I predicted that it might mean a contract of $100 million over five years.
Following Diaz on my list? Trea Turner at No. 2, Jacob deGrom at No. 3, and Brandon Nimmo at No. 4.
Whether or not the Mets pursue Turner (or if he would even be open to playing second base regularly) remains to be seen. But they can’t even properly go after him for another three days. So he won’t be the immediate target.
Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino reported in the days before Diaz signed that the Mets were prioritizing Diaz and Nimmo over all of their other internal free agents, with Martino adding that it was in no way a commentary on the deGrom situation.
Can Nimmo be inked before the Mets’ exclusive five-day window ends?
Anything is possible, especially if the Mets are aggressive and offer a deal that Nimmo’s agent, Scott Boras, feels will be the best Nimmo can get on the open market. But Boras clients rarely get this close to free agency without testing it, so expect Nimmo to hit the market and for the Mets to maintain their desire to bring him back.
Nimmo, as a terrific offensive player who has turned himself into a plus center fielder, is a rare commodity. And there really isn’t an adequate replacement elsewhere on the free agent market. The Mets know that.
What about deGrom?
Over the last few weeks, two of deGrom’s former teammates — Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard — discussed his free agency. Wheeler said deGrom told him he’s “happy” in New York, and Syndergaard said he’d be surprised if deGrom left.
Then last week, Mark Canha said deGrom told him that he wants to come back and that he likes New York.
The above could mean nothing, but it would make little sense for deGrom to confide in current and former teammates that he wanted to return if he didn’t want to. Sure, I guess you can take the cynical view and say deGrom wouldn’t want the Mets out of the bidding if he didn’t want to stay. But deGrom wouldn’t have to go through his current and former teammates to get that message out.
Either way, the biggest issue as it pertains to the Mets’ pursuit of a deGrom reunion could be the timing.
The Mets, with justice Max Scherzer guaranteed to be part of their starting rotation in 2023, need a backup plan if deGrom leaves. And if deGrom drags this out for months, those backup plans might not be available — Chris Bassitt included.
Beyond Nimmo and deGrom are other areas the Mets need to address.
It would be wise for them to sign a DH who can hit both righties and lefties well and do so with power. And it just so happens that both Jose Abreu and JD Martinez are free agents.
New York will also need to add some external relief aid, and there are some intriguing arms out there, including Robert Suarez and old friend Rafael Montero.
For now, the Mets can relish in the fact that Diaz is back. But while getting Diaz re-signed removes an enormous item from their to-do list, that list remains quite long.