How The 2016 NBA Cap Spike Helped Prolong The Golden State Warriors’ Dynasty

The NBA’s national TV contracts with ESPN and Turner Sports are up after the 2024-25 season, which means the league may soon be in line for a mammoth windfall. The league is reportedly eyeing a three-fold increase in the value of its next rights package, while at least one media expert expects it to double in value.

If the NBA succeeds in that mission, the salary cap in 2025-26 and beyond will soar as well. The league and the National Basketball Players Association are proactively working to address that in advance.

As the two sides continue to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement ahead of the Dec. 15 opt-out deadline, they’re “working on a ‘smoothing’ plan to incrementally add in the windfall escalation of revenue in the league’s looming media deal, which would avoid a repeat of the cap spike in 2016 that disproportionately rewarded one class of free agents and selected teams,” according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

The NBPA rejected a cap-smoothing proposal before the current national TV deals went into effect, which set the stage for a historic salary-cap spike in the summer of 2016. That decision helped the Golden State Warriors prolong their dynasty far longer than they would otherwise. probably could have.

Going into the summer of 2016, the Warriors were at a crossroads. After winning the 2015 NBA championship, they returned to the NBA Finals the following year, but they lost a hard-fought, seven-game series to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Although they had already signed Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to extensions, starting wing Harrison Barnes was set to become a restricted free agent that offseason, while Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut were heading into the final year of their respective contracts.

The Warriors had the opportunity to match any offer sheet Barnes signed with another team, so they could have run back their same core in 2016-17. But because the union rejected a cap-smoothing proposal, the cap jumped from a historic $24 million, which set the stage for them to sign Kevin Durant in free agency.

Golden State traded Bogut to the Dallas Mavericks to free up the cap space to sign Durant, while Barnes signed with the Mavs in free agency. The Warriors went on to win the next two NBA championships, and they very well could have had a three-peat had Durant and Thompson both not suffered major injuries during the 2019 NBA Finals against the Toronto Raptors.

The 2019 offseason was another pivot point for the Warriors. Durant planned to sign with the Brooklyn Nets as an unrestricted free agent, but the Warriors made sure they weren’t left empty-handed. Rather than lose him for nothing, they negotiated a double sign-and-trade in which they sent Durant and a top-20-protected 2020 first-round pick to the Nets for D’Angelo Russell, Shabazz Napier and Treveon Graham.

Russell didn’t make much sense for the Warriors conceptually, as Curry and Thompson had their two backcourt spots locked down (when healthy). But the Warriors weren’t acquiring him to be a long-term fixture. He was a short-term fill-in for Thompson and a $30-plus million trade chip that could bring back another major piece.

Russell spent only seven months in the Bay Area before the Warriors shipped him to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins and a top-three-protected 2021 first-round pick. Wiggins, who had failed to live up to expectations as the 2014 No. 1 overall pick in Minnesota, was suddenly booked for a much smaller, complementary role in Golden State that far better suited him.

Despite their midseason acquisition of Russell, the Timberwolves finished with the NBA’s sixth-worst record in 2020-21. They wound up conveying the No. 7 overall pick to Golden State in the 2021 draft, which the Warriors used on rangy forward Jonathan Kuminga. Paired with their own lottery pick (No. 14, Moses Moody) and 2020 No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman, the Warriors suddenly had a much-needed infusion of young, high-potential talent to complement the Curry-Thompson-Green core.

Although the Warriors’ young players have struggled at the start of the 2022-23 season, Wiggins was a key component in their run to last year’s NBA championship. The Warriors would never have been able to acquire him if not for the 2016 cap spike and the ensuing domino effects.

Most NBA superteams have a half-decade window at most before falling apart, but the Warriors are still chugging along after nearly a decade. Had the cap spike not enabled them to sign Durant and later sign-and-trade him for Russell (whom they’d then turn into Wiggins and Kuminga), who knows whether they would have sustained this run for as long as they have.

It appears as though the NBA and NBPA are mindful of how the cap spike “disproportionately rewarded” the Warriors and the 2016 free-agent class, as Wojnarowski wrote. If they can’t agree upon a cap-smoothing proposal to gradually ease the upcoming influx of revenue from the new national TV deals, though, we could be headed for a repeat of that scenario during the 2025 offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.