How far the Yankees go to try and re-sign Aaron Judge will provide a window into the business model by which Hal Steinbrenner operates these days.
He wouldn’t be outbid for Gerrit Cole three years ago, deeming the right-hander the missing piece to a championship, but otherwise, the team owner in recent years has spent a little too judiciously in free agency for the fans’ liking.
Two years ago, Hal made getting under the luxury tax threshold a priority and last winter likely dictated the Yankees’ decision to pass on an obvious fit at shortstop like Corey Seager in favor of acquiring a stopgap while waiting for prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to develop.
In addition, the Yankees changed their way of doing business with young players in recent years, locking up Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino to multi-year deals well ahead of their eligibility for free agency.
So even if he pays Judge top dollar to retain him after his 62-homer season, Steinbrenner has offered reason to believe he wants to operate more like other franchises, which in part could mean identifying players to sign long-term, the way a team like the Atlanta Braves has done smartly in recent years.
In truth, the Yankees’ top priority should be figuring out how to do a better job identifying major league-quality talent and developing it, now that the Baby Bombers wave of prospects has come and gone with only Judge living up to expectations.
Nevertheless, they could have decisions to make on young players such as Peraza, Volpe, Oswaldo Cabreraand a few pitchers as well in the coming years.
For the moment, meanwhile, there is one obvious choice in addition to a couple of others that are worth debating:
NESTOR CORTES
With 42 regular season starts under his belt in 2021 and ’22, Cortes is well past the point of wondering if he’s some kind of fluke the league will catch up with eventually. This past season the lefty posted the fifth-best ERA in the American League, at 2.44, while holding hitters to a .189 batting average.
He pitched with dominance from start to start and was easily the Yankees’ best and most consistent starter, ahead of Cole.
The one minor knock is that he couldn’t work deeper into games, averaging 5.2 innings over his 28 starts, but that may be more a function of the Yankees’ analytics-based decision-making than it was Cortes’ performance.
In any case, considering that the former 36th-round draft pick is three years away from free agency, it seems worthwhile for the Yankees to lock him up now and potentially save big on what it might cost as he gets closer to free agency.
He’s not a puppy, as he turns 28 in December, but Cortes is young enough that if he continues to pitch at a high level, he could command a five-year deal as a free agent worth, say, $120 million.
But if they lock him up now, the Yankees could entice him with the security of a long-term deal and perhaps sign him to something like six years for $90 million.
GLEYBER TORRES
This is debatable, to be sure, based on the wild swings in production that define Torres’ career, especially in the last couple of years. For that matter, it will be irrelevant if the Yankees decide to trade the second baseman, something that could be a realistic possibility with the potential for an overcrowded infield.
Yet, Torres turns only 26 in December and finished strong enough last season for the Yankees to project that he could still deliver on those predictions for stardom that followed his first two seasons in the big leagues.
If the front office does feel that way, and with the Yankees it would be based on what their analytics are telling them, better to sign him now to a reasonably priced six-year deal than wait until he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season .
CLAY HOLMES
This one is fascinating. Because of the year-to-year volatility with relievers, teams generally shy away from long-term deals for relievers until they’re forced to deal with free agency.
And actually, it makes sense for the Yankees to at least see how Holmes comes out of the gate in 2023. After all, he’ll be 30 in March and didn’t emerge as a dominating reliever until the last one and a half seasons after coming to the Bronx in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Even last year, Holmes went from unhittable to struggling for a while when thrown into the role of closer to replace Aroldis Chapman. Although he did bounce back to finish strong, delivering six scoreless innings in the postseason, albeit with limited use coming back from a minor injury.
If he comes out throwing that 100-mph sinker with late movement again, it could make sense for the Yankees to give him a deal that extends well beyond his free agency, which begins after two more seasons.