Through the first two weeks of this NBA season, the Milwaukee Bucks are the only team to boast an undefeated record entering the weekend. They have the MVP frontrunner to thank for that.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has taken his game to a new level to open the 2022-23 season, averaging a career-high 33.6 points – second-most in the league as of Thursday – to carry Milwaukee to a perfect 7-0 record. His early brilliance has prompted bookmakers to price the two-time MVP winner as the early favorite (+300) to win the award for the third time in five seasons, just ahead of preseason favorite Luka Doncic (+400).
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There’s no doubt that the Greek Freak deserves his place among the top names in this market given his all-around excellence for the NBA’s early leaders. In addition to his stellar scoring pace, the 7-footer is also averaging a staggering 12.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.1 steals, all while shooting 56.9% from the floor.
Even with those numbers, though, it’s a bit surprising to see Antetokounmpo wrestle away the top spot from Doncic given his historic pace so far for the Mavericks. The Slovenian star leads the league in scoring (36.1 PPG), win shares (1.8), and PER (36.1), and he’s the first player to open the season with seven consecutive 30-point games since Wilt Chamberlain did so in 1962-63 . He also ranks fifth in assists (9.0) and 21st in rebounds (8.9) and is on pace to become the first player in NBA history to average 35/7/7 in a season.
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Clearly, if either of those players keep up this pace, they’ll be on the podium for this award at the end of the season. But they aren’t the only two players worth betting. Here’s a look at the latest MVP odds at BetMGM (100/1 or shorter) and a few other names to watch:
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2022 NBA MVP betting odds (via BetMGM)
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +300 |
| Luka Doncic | +400 |
| Jayson Tatum | +650 |
| Ja Morant | +1000 |
| Stephen Curry | +1200 |
| Joel Embiid | +1600 |
| Kevin Durant | +1600 |
| Nikola Jokic | +2000 |
| Damian Lillard | +3000 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +3000 |
| Pascal Siakam | +3000 |
| Devin Booker | +3500 |
| Zion Williamson | +3500 |
| Trae Young | +4000 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +6600 |
| James Harden | +6600 |
| LeBron James | +8000 |
| Jimmy Butler | +10000 |
| Anthony Davis | +10000 |
| DeMar DeRozan | +10000 |
| Kyrie Irving | +10000 |
2022 NBA MVP picks, predictions, best bets
Jayson Tatum (+650)
Tatum was my best bet to win MVP entering the season as a 12/1 dark horse, and the Celtics star has delivered in a big way amid his “redemption tour” after last year’s disappointing Finals showing.
The sixth-year wing has increased his scoring to a career-high 30.1 points per game on a ridiculous 52.9% from the floor – the second-best mark behind only Antetokounmpo among players averaging at least 25 points per game. That’s absurd efficiency for a player who handles the ball as much as Tatum does and bodes well for his long-term outlook this season.
Tatum also benefits from being the clear-cut top option for the early title favorites, and he’s carried this group even as injuries and off-court drama have threatened to derail it. Don’t be surprised to see the three-time All-Star emerge as the frontrunner if he keeps this up.
Joel Embiid (+1600)
Embiid was already a strong bet to win this award following two consecutive runner-up finishes, a key reason why he opened the year as the second option behind Doncic. So why has he fallen so far here in just a couple of weeks?
Yes, injuries have limited the 76ers’ big man early in the year, but he’s still averaging 27.2 points on a career-best 53.2% from the field despite reduced usage. That last part is sure to change soon: co-star James Harden is expected to miss the next month with a foot injury, thrusting Embiid into a familiar role as the do-it-all superstar down low.
That formula propelled Embiid up the MVP oddsboard each of the last two seasons, and now he’ll get a chance to remind people just how dominant he can be when his team needs him to be. Buy the dip here on a player who should still be priced among the clear favorites.
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Damian Lillard (+3000)
Are we sure we aren’t writing off Lillard too early? The Blazers’ star guard has already been sidelined with a minor calf injury that will likely cost him a few more games, but he’s been electric when in the lineup, averaging career highs in scoring (31 PPG) and efficiency (49.5%).
The kicker for Lillard’s candidacy might be the play of his teammates around him. Through five games, Portland owns the league’s eighth-best net rating (+3.6) and is one of four teams with a top-11 efficiency on offense and defense – and if the season ended today, it would own the No. 2 seed in the loaded Western Conference.
Clearly, there’s a lot left to sort out this season, but the early returns are promising for this team’s chances of emerging as one of the NBA’s biggest surprises. That could be a serious boon to Lillard’s campaign if the six-time All-NBA guard can rediscover his elite form throughout a full season.
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