The Mets have lots of holes to fill this offseason, and they’re likely going to address most of them by spending money on the free agent market.
And with it seeming likely that the Mets will not only go past the top luxury tax threshold of $290 million, but exceed it by a wide margin, they should be seriously involved at the top end of the market for external free agents and their own key players set to hit free agency.
Here are the top 10 free agents who should be on the Mets’ wish list, ranked…
10. CARLOS RODON, LHP
Rodon, who is set to enter his age-30 season, was absolutely terrific for the San Francisco Giants this year, with a 2.88 ERA (2.25 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP with 237 strikeouts in 178 innings over 31 starts — a league-leading 12.0 strikeouts per nine among qualified starters.
So why is Rodon so low on this list? Well, it’s because he has had two elite seasons (in 2021 and 2022), and six other seasons where he combined to have a 4.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Rodon has also had serious health problems, and dealt with shoulder issues in one of those elite seasons (2021), which limited him to 132.2 innings and tarnished the end of his year.
If you can guarantee Rodon’s health and effectiveness, he’s incredibly intriguing. But there are serious concerns surrounding both.
9. CARLOS CORREA, INF
If the Mets don’t sign a different free agent infielder who is listed below, the 28-year-old Correa could be a hell of a fallback option.
Health has been an issue in Correa’s past, but he has played 284 combined games over the last two seasons while slashing .285/.366/.476. A two-time All-Star who finished fifth in MVP voting in 2021, Correa would have to be willing to slide from shortstop in order to sign with the Mets.
And when you combine the above with the possibility that Correa could get 10 years on the deal he’s about to sign, it makes him landing with the Mets seem like quite a longshot.
8. ROBERT SUAREZ, RHP
Most of the Mets’ relievers are set for free agency. And even if they bring some of them back (of the non-Edwin Diaz variety), they’re still going to need a true setup man to get the game to (hopefully) Diaz. And I would have Suarez high on the list.
Suarez, who is entering his age-32 season, has a $5 million player option for 2023 that he seems poised to decline. He was terrific for the San Diego Padres this season, with a 2.27 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 1.04 WHIP with 61 strikeouts in 47.2 innings — a rate of 11.5 per 9. Suarez was a tad wild, walking 4.0 per 9, but that was offset by him allowing just 5.5 hits per 9 and giving up only four home runs all season.
His stuff is explosive, with a fastball that averaged 97.7 mph in 2022 and topped out around 101. Suarez also features a changeup and cutter.
Regardless of what happens with Jacob deGrom (much more on him later), Taijuan Walkeror Carlos Carrasco (whom the Mets hold a $14 million option on for 2023), the Mets should have serious interest in a reunion with Bassitt.
That might be tricky if Carrasco’s option is picked up (the Mets have until five days after the World Series to decide on it) and deGrom returns, simply because of how much money would be tied up in the starting rotation in addition to the $43.3 million owed annually to Max Scherzer in 2023 and 2024.
But if the Mets decline Carrasco’s option or deGrom leaves, Bassitt (and the guy who is No. 6 on this list) should be top targets to shore up the rotation.
6. JUSTIN VERLANDER, RHP
The Mets would likely only pursue Verlander if deGrom isn’t back. And if New York is looking to add an ace to the top of their rotation that doesn’t have deGrom, Verlander is their best bet — assuming he’s willing to leave the Houston Astros.
And if Verlander is open to leaving Houston, it’s fair to believe that he can be had on a deal for one or two years.
Yes, Verlander is entering his age-40 season. But he’s about to win the AL Cy Young award after spinning a 1.75 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 185 strikeouts in 175 innings over 28 starts in 2022 in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Clearly, Verlander’s age hasn’t caught up to him.
5. JOSE ABREU, DH
The Mets are in serious need of a DH who can hit both right-handers and left-handers while adding pop to the lineup. And Abreu fits the bill pretty perfectly.
Abreu, who is entering his age-36 season, is a career .292/.354/.506 hitter who slashed .304/.378/.446 in 2022. Abreu’s power was down a bit this past season, since he hit just 15 homers, but that was offset by the 40 doubles he smacked.
A look at Abreu’s advanced numbers from 2022 also tell a very nice story, with him among the best in baseball when it came to average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout rate. He was also above average in barrel percentage, walk rate, and whiff percentage.
If the Mets can’t land Abreu, JD Martinez could be a solid fallback — if the Mets are comfortable with the health of his back.
Nimmo was quite literally one of the most valuable players in baseball in 2022 via fWAR, coming in at 27th — right behind Alex Bregman and just in front of Julio Rodriguez. So to say the Mets retaining him is important would be an understatement.
As it pertains to Nimmo, who has turned himself into a plus center fielder, there’s also the fact that the Mets don’t have anyone ready to replace him. They could conceivably slide Starling Marte to center, but that would create an enormous hole in right. And Marte’s defense in center has regressed.
Like many of his teammates, Nimmo has expressed a desire to return to the Mets. And he fits the mold of what they’re trying to be. He’s an on-base machine, a high-energy guy, and a team-first player who provides lots of value on both sides of the ball.
The decision on deGrom is the toughest one facing the Mets this offseason, and one of the most difficult in the history of the franchise.
If deGrom wants to stay in New York (and he recently told former teammate Zack Wheeler he’s happy here) and the Mets want him back (and have faith that he’ll stay relatively healthy), they should quickly extend an offer of three years for $132 million, which would make deGrom the highest-paid pitcher ever in terms of average annual value.
Getting deGrom locked up would once again give the Mets two aces atop their rotation (hopefully for a full season this time), and would likely render potential pursuits of Verlander and Rodon moot. But if deGrom wants four or five years guaranteed, the Mets should walk away — as hard as that might be.
2. TREA TURNER, INF
If the Mets aren’t signing Aaron Judge (more on him in a bit), and if they’re not trading for Shohei Ohtani (which seems unlikely at the moment, at least as far as an offseason trade is concerned), they should zero in on Turner as the bat they target to add punch to their offense.
No, Turner doesn’t hit tons of homers. But he hits tons of extra-base hits — he had 21 homers, 39 doubles, and four triples in 2022 while slashing .298/.343/.466 with 100 RBI and 101 runs scored. The 29-year-old is truly a dynamic offensive player.
The big question here is whether Turner would be willing to slide to second base (he started 48 games there for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021) to fit on the infield with Francisco Lindor, who is a better defender at shortstop. If Turner is open to it, the Mets should pounce.
One concern could be the years Turner gets (perhaps seven?), but he’s been a remarkably consistent player when it comes to health. He played 160 games in 2022, 148 in 2021, 59 of 60 during the shortened season in 2020, 122 games in 2019, and all 162 games in 2018.
Diaz is the best and most electric closer in the sport, has proven that he can handle the immense pressure that comes with playing in New York City, and wants to be back.
The Mets want Diaz back, too, which is why the first thing on their checklist should be getting a deal done with him. Diaz, who is entering his age-29 season, could possibly become the highest-paid closer ever when it comes to average annual value. And maybe that means a contract of $100 million for five years.
Whether the Mets get a deal done with Diaz during their exclusive five-day negotiating window after the World Series or not, this is something that should be wrapped up relatively quickly, with New York hopefully adding an elite closer back to a bullpen that is about to undergo lots of changes.
***
You might have noticed that the biggest free agent set to be out there — Judge — was not on this list. Here’s why…
Judge coming to the Mets would not only be an amazing get and one of the biggest stories in New York sports history, but would provide their lineup with the serious thump they were lacking in 2022.
But Judge is entering his age-31 season, has dealt with lots of injury issues, and could be seeking a deal that pays him $400 million. In a world where Judge can be had for five years or so, even if the average annual value is astronomical, the Mets should be all over it.
But if Judge is seeking $40 million-plus per season for eight or more years, the Mets should pass. They have too many other holes to fill.