Three weeks in to the TWC NHL Power Rankings and the movement is still fast and furious. This includes almost a completely new set of top five teams, combined with some sky rocketing and others cratering across the board. This week is a doozy.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 3 NHL Power Rankings
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Notes and observations
The Boston Bruins are the top of the class this week. After a perfect 3–0–0 week, the Bruins are first in the NHL in terms of P%. The model favors this heavily, but the team is also second in the NHL in HDCF% as well as third in SV% in all situations. Combine this with the fact that they just got Brad Marchand back, it’s clear the Bruins are firing on all cylinders.
Out in the Western Conference we have the Bruins counterpart; a team that was not expected to be as good this season and has the Bruins’ old head coach. The Vegas Golden Knights went 4-0-0 last week to move up a whopping ten spots into second place. The team has the league’s best SV% thanks to Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, with stellar goaltending particularly from Thompson. After years of change, the team is looking far better than anticipated.
Shockingly, the New Jersey Devils have completely turned their season around in the last two weeks after starting our first week in 26th place, the team catapulted into eighth last week and now sit in third after a 3-1-0 week. The Devils are finally putting together the pieces.
The Hurricanes recovered after a down week to jump back into the top five. They sit in fourth, just ahead of the Calgary Flames. Both teams’ underlying numbers and high standings ranking keep them in the top five despite a combined 3-2-0 week.
Another hot Western Conference team is the Edmonton Oilers who also went 4-0-0. A win in the second Battle of Alberta, and two wins over the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks have gotten the Oilers back on track after a slower start. I don’t think anyone would be complaining about a Flames and Oilers playoff matchup again.
Moving down the list, teams like the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning trended in the right direction, while the Dallas Stars, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Toronto Maple Leafs took steps back. The Penguins, who were first overall last week, went 0-4-0 and now sit at 4-4-1 on the season. Clearly not the week they wanted.
The Winnipeg Jets tied the Oilers for the highest jump in our rankings, moving up thirteen spots. A 3-0-1 week has this team above 0.500 and in a playoff position.
A few big names at the bottom that need to be highlighted, and primarily Central Division teams. The Colorado Avalanche went 1-2-0 and sat at 4-4-1 on the season. Although not terrible, and a very common record for teams to start the 2022-23 season, surely the Avalanche were hoping for better.
They are far better off than the Blues though, who after an 0-4-0 week they tumbled 24 spots on our list. The reason for this is obviously due to a 3–0–0 team becoming a 3–4–0 team, which we knew would happen with a small sample size, but the team is also in the bottom third in all statistical categories measured in our model. The team came crashing back down to earth this week, but we expect some rebounding in the next few outings.
Finally, the Columbus Blue Jackets dropped six spots into 30th on our list after going 0-3-0, including an ugly defeat against New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. That being said, the Jackets interestingly have the worst PDO in the league at 0.960 which means they are simply just a bit unlucky right now. That being said they need some wins, and fast.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Week 1 | 2
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.