There’s a 10-game slate on tap in the NHL this Thursday and once again, just like last Thursday, every game but one has a puck total of 6.5 on. DraftKings Sportsbook. Today it’s just the Jets at Kings that sports a 6.0 total and you will very possibly see that line move up by puck drop. The Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues are the only teams on back-to-backs today as the teams played each other last night in St. Louis, but they are both on the road today.
Stars puckline +190
The Dallas Stars head home today after suffering their first two regulation losses of the season. Both of those losses came on the road though and they can hardly be faulted for dropping a close game to the Bruins, who have arguably been the best team in the league through two weeks and are undefeated at home themselves. Dallas has won both of their home games this far by multiple goals and will take on a Capitals team who is without four key forwards in Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, Connor Brown and Carl Hagelin.
The Capitals have still been winning games somehow but look ripe for some shooting regression as a team in this spot against Jake Oettinger, who hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a single start all season long. Washington is fourth-worst in xGF% (expected goal for %) and hasn’t been creating many chances five-on-five, while Dallas is 11th-best in that category and has the deeper forward core. This looks like a mismatch in net and up front, especially with the injuries Washington is dealing with. Take the Stars to win big at home and break their mini-losing streak.
Over 6.5 goals -130
This one sets up as a classic over play with two teams ranked in the top eight in goals per game, and each sporting below-average netminding. Minnesota got back on track last night against Montreal but will be facing a much better offense in Ottawa today. They may also opt to give starter Marc-Andre Fleury a rest after he played last night. Fleury has been terrible to start the season anyway as last night was his first game in five starts that he’s allowed less than three goals.
Ottawa’s offense has also picked up after a slow start and the Senators come in averaging 5.5 goals over their last four contests. These two teams have been over magnets the last two weeks with Senators games hitting 7.0 or more goals in three of their four starts and Wild games hitting 7.0 or more goals in five of their six starts. Even with heavier juice, the over looks too appealing to pass up on a 6.5-puck total.
The Jets and the Kings both allow well over 30 shots on net per game and I’d expect somewhat of a fast up-and-down tempo between these two teams today. Pierre-Luc Dubois has played over 20 shifts in each of his last five games and is coming off a season where he averaged 2.87 SOG over a big 81-game sample size. This year he’s been producing at virtually the same pace for the Jets and now gets a Kings team who is allowing over five more shots per game than they did last season. Dubois at anything better than -125 looks worth an over play today for shots on goal props.
As mentioned above, the Stars take on the Capitals today, who remain ultra-shorthanded up front. That should allow Dallas’ top center, Roope Hintz, to potentially dominate the middle of the ice and get an extra opportunity or two against Washington, who has allowed 33.1 shots per game this season—the eighth-highest mark in the league. Hintz averaged 2.6 shots on net in 2021-22 and has picked it up after a couple of low-volume games to start his season. He’s averaged 3.0 shots on net in each of his last two games and should find lots of open ice and chances to get pucks through against the banged-up Capitals. The bigger price at +125 makes this another over well worth taking.
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