Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
It’s been a chaotic October. It’s always like this in the first month, but at least we are getting a better sense of which teams are good and which ones we’ve managed to overrate or underrate in the early going. One thing that’s made clear so far: there’s not one dominant team.
That means for the second straight week, we have a new team in the top spot and it’s the Flames on the strength of their consistent play and ability to bounce back after a three-goal loss. There’s also a new team at the bottom, too, and it should be no surprise it’s the winless Canucks. Among the teams that ranked in the top five last week, the Penguins are the only one to drop out having lost back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday, while the Bruins move into the third spot.
Other teams that moved up significantly include the Knights, Capitals, Sabres, Senators and Blackhawks, while the Lightning, Panthers, Islanders and Predators took a tumble.
(All fancy stats are 5v5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.)
1. Calgary Flames (5-1-0, +5. CF% League Rank: 12, xGF% League Rank: 12)
Kadri has scored more than a point per game and the Flames have outshot their opponents in every game. Coach Darryl Sutter may only be impressed by W’sbut GM Brad Treliving’s work during the off-season was most impressive.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (4-1-1, +6. CF%: 1, xGF%: 2)
They went 3-1-1 on a 10-day road trip, but an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Oilers and then blowing a two-goal lead against the Flames cast a little doubt. And then they played the Canucks.
3. Boston Bruins (6-1-0, +10. CF%: 6, xGF%: 3)
They needed a little luck to pull off their past two wins, but the Bruins just never seem to fall off like you think they would with 36-year-old David Krejci and 37-year-old Patrice Bergeron ranked second and third in team scoring. , respectively. Imagine if they keep this up and then add Marchand and McAvoy in the coming months.
4. Colorado Avalanche (4-2-1, +4. CF%: 7, xGF%: 16)
Dominant? Cup favorite? Not really so far, but if Alexandar Georgiev can match Igor Shesterkin save-for-save like he did Tuesday against the Rangers, the Avs’ weakest point last season – goaltending – is no longer a worry.
5. New York Rangers (3-2-2, -1. CF%: 4, xGF%: 10)
They’ve really stumbled going 0-1-2 over the past week, including losses to San Jose and Columbus, but there’s no panic – the Rangers have earned that trust. Shesterkin remains fantastic, and their possession numbers have vastly improved.
6. Vegas Golden Knights (6-2-0, +10. CF%: 15, xGF%: 7)
Vegas is back, baby. The Knights’ two losses this season have been against the Avs and Flames, which is totally understandable. Congratulations to ‘Phil the Thrill,’ who scored his 400th goal playing in his record-setting 990th consecutive game. It seems like such a missed opportunity Kessel isn’t sponsored by a hot dog or sugary drinks company to show that you can eat like a 5-year-old and make millions playing sports.
7. Edmonton Oilers (3-3-0, +2. CF%: 10, xGF%: 9)
The magic number right now is five. As in, if the Oilers score at least five goals, they’re 3-0-0, but if they score less than five, they’re 0-3-0. Good news: Jack Campbell is still really rich.
8. Pittsburgh Penguins (4-2-1, +9. CF%: 16, xGF%: 6)
The Pens were playing back-to-back and the Flames were coming off two-days’ rest, so we’ll give them a pass. It is no coincidence that the Pens have faltered a little with Jake Guentzel out of the lineup – they must stay healthy to have a shot at winning.
9. Toronto Maple Leafs (4-3-0, +1. CF%: 9, xGF%: 13)
What’s worse: knowing the cap prevented you from playing Nick Robertson in the season opener and making it difficult to replace Jake Muzzin, or that two of your losses were against Arizona and Montreal? Answer: Neither, the worst is knowing you’re somehow behind Buffalo and Ottawa.
10. St. Louis Blues (3-1-0, +2. CF%: 29, xGF%: 24)
It does feel rather odd writing, “Jordan Binnington is unbeaten,” but that’s exactly what he is. The Blues have played a league-low four games, making them difficult to gauge in a roller coaster of a month, but most signs have been positive.
11. Washington Capitals (4-3-0, +1. CF%: 23, xGF%: 29)
They started off slow, but they’re picking up steam with four wins in five games. The defense needs work, but the Darcy Kuemper-Charlie Lindgren tandem looks really darn solid.
12. Los Angeles Kings (4-4-0, -5. CF%: 17, xGF%: 15)
The Kings continue to be one of the streakiest teams in the league, continuing where they left off last season. Other than Gabe Vilardi, none of their other young players have taken the next step as expected, and Kevin Fiala has scored only once in eight games.
13. Tampa Bay Lightning (3-4-0, -3. CF%: 18, xGF%: 18)
The Lightning’s slow start is somewhat concerning, considering that more than half of their goals have come from just two players, and only four of the 21 players they’ve dressed have scored more than one goal.
14. Florida Panthers (4-2-1, even. CF%: 3, xGF%: 8)
Expectations are high for the Panthers, as they should be after last season’s performance, but did GM Bill Zito miscalculate trading Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar so quickly? The Panthers looked listless some nights even with Tkachuk dragging them along, and only their season-opening win was decided by more than one goal.
15. Buffalo Sabers (4-2-0, +7. CF%: 26, xGF%: 25)
We’ll cut the Sabers – see what I did there – some slack in Tuesday’s loss to the Kraken since it was their last game on an otherwise brilliant four-game road trip. Their young players continue to perform, Rasmus Dahlin’s setting records and Eric Comrie has already taken over the starting job.
16. Ottawa Senators (4-2-0, +7. CF%: 8, xGF%: 4)
Their offense is no joke. Last season, they scored five or more goals just three times in the first two months of the season, two of which were 7-5 losses. This season, they’ve scored at least five goals in three of their six games, including a 7-5 win.
17. Dallas Stars (4-2-1, +8. CF%: 21, xGF%: 11)
After three straight wins, the Stars have lost three of their past four, although two of them featured Scott Wedgewood in net. Mason Marchment and Wyatt Johnston have been good additions, but once again, it just shows that this team only goes as far as Oettinger takes them. He’s allowed two goals or less in every single game so far.
18. Philadelphia Flyers (4-2-0, +3. CF%: 31, xGF%: 30)
OK, so maybe the magic has worn off a little bit, but Carter Hart is unbeaten so far this season – again, weird to write, like the one for Binnington – but what coach John Tortorella has been very impressive so far, making GM Chuck Fletcher looks like he knows how to build a roster.
19. New Jersey Devils (4-3-0, +1. CF%: 2, xGF%: 1)
When the Devils don’t turn over the puck carelessly and their goalies make stops, they’re incredibly hard to beat. They’re averaging 18.3 shots (!) more shots than their opponents this season, and no other team comes close.
20. Winnipeg Jets (3-3-0, -1. CF%: 20, xGF%: 21)
Their start has been better than expected, but usually, coach Rick Bowness’ teams like to keep the scores small and tight. Instead, five of their six goals have either been multi-goal wins or multi-goal losses. In one game, you think they’re a dark horse, and in another game, they might as well start the rebuild.
21. Minnesota Wild (2-3-1, -6. CF%: 19, xGF%: 19)
Despite snapping their losing streak, Marc-Andre Fleury has still been one of the worst goalies in the league. Along with Filip Gustavsson, they currently have the highest goals-against average in franchise history among goalies with more than one appearance.
22. Chicago Blackhawks (4-2-0, +3. CF%: 30, xGF%: 27)
Their season started off like everyone thought it would, but the Hawks have strung together four (!) straight wins. It took until Nov. 12 last season for them to win four games after losing nine straight to start.
23. Detroit Red Wings (3-1-2, +4. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28)
You can’t spell “sinkhole” without Ville Husso and Alex Nedeljkovic’s names, which is really fitting because that’s what their goaltending feels like half the time.
24. New York Islanders (2-4-0, +1. CF%: 14, xGF%: 22)
Sorokin ranks 62nd out of 65 goalies in 5-on-5 goals saved above average. After scoring 12 goals against the Sharks and Ducks, the Isles allowed 12 goals in their next four games and scored only six. Never mind that they still can’t score – they flat-out won’t win many games if their star goalie struggles.
25. Seattle Kraken (3-3-2, -2. CF%: 5, xGF%: 5)
Better, but still not quite good enough. They still don’t score very consistently, and other than the occasional good start by Jones, their goaltending remains a headache. Dave Hakstol remains one of the toughest coaches to figure out, too – McCann was their leading scorer last season and their top scorer right now, yet he’s averaging 14:22 TOI per game, almost two minutes less than last season.
26. Montreal Canadiens (3-4-0, -4. CF%: 13, xGF%: 23)
The Habs’ top three scorers after Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield: Sean Monahan, Arber Xhekaj and Kirby Dach. While the team’s roster still needs plenty of work, coach Martin St. Louis and GM Kent Hughes continuing to find value and pieces to fit in their young core is an excellent sign.
27. Arizona Coyotes (2-4-0, -10. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)
Taking two out of six games isn’t bad at all, considering they don’t have any elite players. (Sheldon Keefe’s words, not mine!) On another note, Shayne Gostisbehere has been ridiculously good in the desert, scoring 59 points in 88 games in two seasons with the club. This season, he leads the team with 23 shots, 12 (!) more than the next player.
28. Columbus Blue Jackets (3-5-0, -8. CF%: 25, xGF%: 17)
So much for the vaunted Johnny Gaudreau to Patrik Laine connection. The Jackets are now 0-for-20 on the power play, and generate roughly 77 shot attempts per 60 minutes on the power play, which is pretty close to the 75 shot attempts the Canes generate at even strength.
29. Nashville Predators (2-4-1, -8. CF%: 11, xGF%: 14)
So much for secondary scoring. The Preds have yet to win a game on North American soil, and over the past week, only four players have scored a goal. Goalie Juuse Saros is off to a slower start than usual, and for the umpteenth time: how much longer should GM David Poile stay?
30. Anaheim Ducks (1-4-1, -14. CF%: 28, xGF%: 31)
The Ducks went 0-4-1 in their five-game road trip, and the annual moment where goalie John Gibson loses all interest in the season because his defense leaves him out to dry seems to have come earlier than usual.
31. San Jose Sharks (2-7-0, -10. CF%: 24, xGF%: 20)
The Sharks showed some life with wins over the Rangers and Flyers, but there’s no convincing anyone that this is a good team. Biggest surprise, though? Erik Karlsson, who hasn’t played this well since first joining the Sharks, while Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier have combined for one measly goal.
32. Vancouver Canucks (0-5-2, -12. CF%: 22, xGF%: 26)
If you don’t have the winless Canucks at the bottom of your list – thank you for your generous act of kindness, but note such acts are not tax deductible.
.