It’s been an unusually bad year for the Rams’ offense by Sean McVay’s standards. After ranking in the top 11 in yards in each of his first five seasons as the head coach, the Rams sit 26th in that category through six games this year.
A big reason for that is the team’s lack of efficiency on first and second down. That’s put Matthew Stafford and the passing game in tough spots on third down, often being faced with third-and-long situations.
The Rams haven’t just been bad on early downs, either. They’ve been downright atrocious. This chart from Ben Baldwin shows the Rams in the lower left corner all by themselves as not only the least efficient rushing offense on first and second down, but the least efficient passing offense, too.
How effective each team’s passing and rushing offenses have been on early downs this year.
I knew things have been bad for the Rams this year, but wow pic.twitter.com/1yHEwyPlFd
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 25, 2022
Looking at Stathead, there are some clear examples of what has made the Rams offense so bad on first and second down. For starters, they’re gaining an average of 4.6 yards per play on those downs, worst in the NFL. That’s not helped by the fact that Stafford has thrown seven interceptions on first and second down, tied for second-most. And he’s been sacked 15 times on early downs, which is fourth-most.
Those negative plays have been crushing for the Rams offense, keeping them behind the chains and making life difficult on third down. What’s amazing is that the Rams have one of the best third-down offenses despite often being in third-and-long.
According to Stathead, their average distance to go on third down is 7.4 yards, third-highest in the league. Their average gain of 6.2 yards is tied for third-best and their conversion rate of 43.4% is the seventh-highest in the NFL.
Their third-and-long frequency has made the offense one-dimensional on third down, too. They’ve run the ball only 13 times on third down, the third-fewest in football. By comparison, they’ve thrown it 60 times on third.
The moral of the story is that the Rams need to be better on first and second down because by some minor miracle, they have one of the most efficient third-down offenses despite often having more than 7 yards to go to pick up the first down.
The ground game is a big problem because on first and second down, the Rams are averaging a league-worst 3.2 yards per carry. It’s hard to stay ahead of the chains when your running backs can’t pick up at least 4 yards per attempt.
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