Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Washington Capitals (@TOR) +179
Both teams are coming off ugly losses in their season openers on Wednesday. Washington lost 5-2 vs. Boston, and Toronto dropped their game in Montreal 4-3. As a result, both teams are expected to go with their other goaltending options on Thursday, Charlie Lindgren for the Capitals and former Capital Ilya Samsonov for the Maple Leafs. Despite losing in Montreal, the Maple Leafs are still pretty substantial favorites (-201) on home ice. The model thinks that line should be closer to -130, making the Capitals a valuable bet at +179. If you have concerns about Lindgren, the 28-year-old has a .913 SV% in 29 career NHL appearances and had a .925 SV% in 34 AHL games last year, so he’s a more than capable NHL backup.
Colorado Avalanche (@CGY) +111
Typically I would stay away from teams playing on the road back-to-backs against a team that was sitting at home waiting for them. However, it’s the second game of the season and playing a regular season game already may actually help the Avalanche in this situation. Additionally, they played in Chicago last night and won easily, so it’s not like they’re coming off a grueling battle. The model sees this as a tight game but has the Avalanche as -128 favorites, while the sportsbooks have them at +111 underdogs. Calgary looks like they’ll be a powerhouse this season, but they’re still trying to integrate some new faces into the lineup, so this is the perfect time to get Colorado at plus money, something that will be rare this season.
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