One of the things we’ve learned during hockey’s analytics revolution is that shooting percentage can be deceiving. When a player has a season in which the shots are going in at a higher rate than his established career number, we should be suspicious that the year will turn out to be a fluke, or at least an outlier, and not a new long- term norm. In other words, just because somebody gets lucky one year doesn’t mean we should expect them to repeat that in the future.
This is my way of managing expectations for this year’s oddly specific predictions.
For those of you who are new, this is the column where I make one way-too-specific prediction for each NHL team. Anyone can say that a team will be better, or that a star will put up great numbers, or that a rookie will break out. But how much better, and what exact numbers, and on which specific date will the breakout happen? Only a fool would try to get that sort of thing exactly right. And since I’m a fool, I try to do it every year. (It’s also an excuse to dig up weird stats about teams and players, but consider that a bonus.)
For most teams, my picks whiff completely. Occasionally, I get one right, or at least close enough that everyone pretends to be impressed. In a good year, that may even happen a few times.
But last year, something weird happened. I didn’t just get one of the predictions right, I nailed a one-in-a-million shot. Veteran Dallas Stars defenseman Joel Hanley had never scored a regular-season NHL goal in his career.
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