Like those apps on your phone, the MLB postseason has been updated. Bugs have been fixed (no more single-game elimination) and enhancements have been added (especially for the two best teams in each league, maybe to a fault).
The new format is off to a wild start: the longest 0–0 game in postseason history, the biggest ninth-inning rally in postseason history, the biggest comeback win by a road team in postseason history and the best team pitching performance in a winner -take-all postseason game. That’s all after one weekend.
This postseason is more unpredictable than ever because of the wild-card series replacing the wild-card game and because of scheduling quirks caused by the lockout. The changes will have a profound effect on pitching. Here are the biggest pitching trends and oddities in store with this postseason 22 update:
Two of four for Cole and Verlander?
Justin Verlander is likely to win his third career Cy Young award, after he went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA this season, his first back from Tommy John surgery.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
The ALDS oddly alternates game days and off days for the first four days. That means the Game 1 starter can also start Game 4—a potential clincher for one team—on full rest.
Would Yankees manager Aaron Boone has Gerrit Cole start two of the first four games against Cleveland? Cole is slightly better with extra rest (3.24 in 16 starts) than normal rest (3.72 in 17 starts).
Would Astros manager Dusty Baker gave Justin Verlander the ball in Games 1 and 4? That seems less likely because 1) Baker has more good rotation options than does Boone and 2) Verlander has enjoyed extra rest often this year in Houston’s six-man rotation. He started only five times this year on the fifth day, once in the past four months. In those five starts, however, he is 3–0 with a 0.90 ERA.
The LCS will be a bullpen-palooza
Both LCS have no off days starting with Game 3. That means up to five games without a day off with a trip to the World Series on the line. Most teams don’t like using relievers three days in a row or four out of five.
Deftly navigating the LCS this year will require a deep bullpen, an old-school long reliever (likely an erstwhile back-end starter) and a manager who balances patience (keeping the potential five-game gauntlet in mind) with aggressiveness (to seize the moment when a win is in sight).
The top two seeds have a huge advantage
The format heavily favors the 1 and 2 seeds getting through to the LCS. The Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Astros benefit not just from rest and home-field advantage, but also from their LDS opponents needing to use their best starters just to get out of the wild-card series. The 1 and 2 seeds have home-field and the pitching-matchup advantage for each of the first two games in a best-of-five.
For instance, the Phillies won’t start their best arm, Aaron Nola, until Game 3 against the Braves. Wheeler and Nola will get only one start each (barring one on short rest).
Old school starters for the drought-weary
Guardians righthander Shane Bieber carved up the Rays in the opening game of the postseason. Across 7 2/3 innings, he allowed one run on three hits and one walk with eight strikeouts.
Sue Ogrocki/AP
Shane Bieber of Cleveland, Luis Castillo of Seattle and both Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove of San Diego are among the hottest pitchers in the postseason who can carry the baseball deep into games. If the Guardians (no World Series title since 1948) and the Mariners and Padres (no World Series titles) are to end their droughts, they will need to win 13 games this postseason. And they probably will need their aces to start six times. That is a grind.
Only seven pitchers have made six starts in a postseason: Curt Schilling, Chris Carpenter, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Verlander, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Only three averaged six innings per start: Schilling (2001), Carpenter (2011) and Bumgarner (2014).
Spin the baseball more
As fastballs get faster, they get thrown less—and breaking pitches get thrown more. Why? Breaking pitches are harder to hit, and technology has helped pitchers tailor them in terms of spin, shape and break to be most effective.
Every year for the past five years, pitchers have thrown more breaking pitches. And every year they throw them even more in the postseason. This year is no exception so far. Pitchers threw 34% breaking pitches in the wild-card series, while holding hitters to a .170 average on those spinning pitches.
How did Seattle take out Toronto, a great fastball hitting team? They threw a whopping 44% breaking pitches. Andrés Muñoz, who can throw 103 mph, threw 84% breaking pitches! The Mariners will use the same formula against Houston, another team whose hitters never get off the fastball.
The Guardians held Tampa Bay to a .107 batting average on spin. Philadelphia’s spin was even nastier against St. Louis: .087.
Percentage of Breaking Pitches, MLB
| Regular Season | Postseason | Postseason Batting Avg. Against | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2018 |
27.6% |
29.1% |
.175 |
|
2019 |
28.5% |
34.5% |
.207 |
|
2020 |
29.1% |
32.4% |
.206 |
|
2021 |
29.4% |
33.9% |
.219 |
|
2022 |
31.2% |
34.0% |
.170 |
Who does this spin-crazy game favor? It should not surprise you that the four teams with the toughest breaking pitches to hit this regular season are still playing: the Astros (.182), Yankees (.184), Dodgers (.187) and Guardians (.189).
Swing-and-miss bullpens
This is the one obvious flaw in the Yankees. With Michael King, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman and Chad Greene not on the roster, New York doesn’t have its usual core of swing-and-miss relievers. The Yankees’ pen is built on power sinkerballers, which plays well with the team’s tight interior defense. No team is better at turning ground balls into outs.
But pitching to contact makes a team more vulnerable to bloops and the other vagaries of balls in play.
The last three innings, when hits become harder to get, are about controlling the three true outcomes: limit walks and home runs, boost strikeouts. The best playoff bullpens at this ideal endgame are the Braves, Dodgers, Guardians and Mariners.
Muñoz struck out 38.7% of the batters he faced this year, the highest strikeout rate of any American League reliever (minimum 40 innings).
Nick Turchiaro/USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta is the toughest team to hit from the seventh through ninth innings (.205 average and .597 OPS are MLB bests). Los Angeles has the best strikeout-to-walk rate in those final three innings (3.86). Cleveland and Seattle are among the top five in all three late-game categories.
The Yankees are 15th in late-game K:BB rate. Only Philadelphia had less pure “stuff” at the end of games.
Avoid starts on short rest
Bringing a starter back on three days of rest is tempting, but it often doesn’t turn out well. Pitchers pitch so infrequently on short rest in the regular season these days (more starts on made on five days rest now than four) that moving a pitcher up is risky. Take a look at the success rate of postseason starts on three days of rest, in five-year increments:
Postseason Starts on Three Days Rest
| No. | Team W–L | Starter W–L | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2007–11 |
12 |
6–6 |
5–3 |
|
2012–16 |
16 |
8–8 |
3–6 |
|
2017–21 |
21 |
7–14 |
2–6 |
The last starting pitcher to win on three days of rest was David Price of Boston in the 2018 ALCS. Since then, starters on short rest are 0–5 in 12 starts.
Dave Roberts will find a way
The Dodgers manager has a .571 winning percentage in the postseason (44–33), the equivalent of a 93-win team against exclusively elite competition. But the second-guessers love to question his pitcher usage. Much of that criticism comes from outdated ideas of how postseason baseball is played.
After six years of watching Roberts in the postseason, understand how he (in tandem with the front office) will run a game:
1. He will pull a starting pitcher earlier than you think, especially as the lineup turns over a third time.
2. He is more likely to win a game with his bullpen than this starter.
Roberts has managed 77 postseason games. Only seven times has he allowed a starter to exceed 100 pitches. Only six times has he allowed a starter to face 27 batters (three full times through a lineup). His starting pitchers are 21–21 in the postseason. His relievers are 23-12.
Brian Snitker will ride his bullpen
Under GM Alex Anthopoulos, a protégé of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Atlanta adopted the Dodger Way of pitching last season and won a world championship by doing so.
Last postseason, Snitker used relief pitchers to cover more innings (54%) than his starters (46%). In 13 games, his starters never threw more than 96 pitches and never worked three full times through a lineup. He pulled a starter (Ian Anderson) with a no-hitter after facing just 18 batters and throwing only 76 pitches. It all worked out. Snitker’s starters were 4–3 and his relievers were 7–2.
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• A Near Perfect Day of Baseball Games
• Cardinals’ Seemingly Storybook Season Gets an Unhappy Ending
• The Ninth Inning From Hell
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