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Sober second opinion: Finally some NHL analysts who aren’t over the moon about the Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton Oiler Leon Draisaitl (29) celebrates his goal with team mate Kailer Yamamoto during first period NHL pre-season game action against the Calgary Flames in Edmonton on Friday September 30, 2022.
Edmonton Oiler Leon Draisaitl (29) celebrates his goal with team mate Kailer Yamamoto during first period NHL pre-season game action against the Calgary Flames in Edmonton on Friday September 30, 2022. Photo by LARRY WONG /Postmedia Network

We’ve had no shortage of NHL insiders and analysts predicting great things for the Edmonton Oilers.

ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski predicts they’ll win the Stanley Cup. The Czech analytics duo of Andy and Rono predicts they’ll have the most points of any team in the league, with 108.

The optimism is heartening after the unrelenting pessimism of the Decade of Darkness-plus, but I admit that I find it a relief to find a sober second thought on the Oilers coming from a group of analysts at The Athletic, Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and others, who employ an analytics model that ranks the Oilers as only the 10th best team in the league and predict the Oil will get just 100 points.

Why such relative pessimism from The Athletic?

They make the following arguments:

  • The team has downgraded in net from Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen to Jack Campbell and unproven Stuart Skinner: “With Campbell, it’s hard to know what you’re going to get, especially with a lot of his game hanging on confidence. Given the commitment the Oilers made this summer, they better hope they get the good version o
  • f Jack.”
  • Slight drops in play from Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. “At five-on-five he’s been a below-average scorer two years running,” they said of Nuge.
  • An OK defense. “The defensive depth in Edmonton isn’t horrible,” they note.

Their conclusion? “It’s still McDavid and Draisaitl’s Oilers, with a cast around them that can’t compare to their caliber. But these two aren’t completely on their own anymore. The support may not be contender-material right now, but it’s better than it’s been in years. The offseason, at least on the ice, wasn’t a disaster, so there’s actually potential to build on last year’s impressive playoff run.”

My take

1. As I said, it’s good to hear a sober second opinion. I found myself agreeing with most everything said in the article, although I’m more bullish on Hyman than The Athletic writers. I’ll suggest he had an outstanding season of two-way hockey with the Oilers. Yes, there’s a concern with his game sliding now that he’s in his 30s, with the same concern going to Nugent-Hopkins and Kane, but all three are well-conditioned and highly-motivated athletes. I suspect they will all play at or near peak for at least the next two seasons.

2. Much is expected of Brett Kulak in the Oil’s d-rotation, but Edmonton has a strong anchor pairing in Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci, who can do OK against the NHL’s toughest comp. That makes it easier on everyone else: Kulak, Tyson Barrie, Evan Bouchard and whoever else gets a roster spot. I will say this: a major injury to Nurse would be a huge blow to the Oil. I don’t see anyone else on the team able to step in for him. If he’s out or playing hurt, that’s the one blow the Oil will have a difficult time surmounting.

3. The other big issue, as The Athletic identifies, is goaltending. Jack Campbell has been a solid pro for five or six years running. He’s still in his hockey prime so, fingers crossed, he’ll get the job done. If he doesn’t, Stuart Skinner has made all the right moves for a few years now at the AHL level. He’s not such a bad bet either. At his best, Mike Smith was easy to admire and hard to beat, but I’d much rather be going into the season with Campbell and Skinner than Smith and Koskinen again.

4. I expect the Oil will do a bit better than The Athletic’s projection of 100 points. Why? There’s some strong young talent bubbling up in Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and Markus Niemelainen. At the same time, all the vets are still in their playing primes. It’s a nice combo for a team, a sweet balance of youth and age. It’s a sweet spot year for the Oilers, I’ll suggest, so I see them winning their division, beating out Calgary, and again meeting Colorado in the Western Conference finals.

5. Why am I cool with a less optimistic take on the Oilers? First off, because I don’t put much weight in any of these predictions. No one has a crystal ball, so why get worked up about this kind of thing? Second, because nothing but predictions of assured Stanley Cup glory might not be healthy for the team. It might put too much pressure on the squad.

At the Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: 9 Things

McCURDY: Holloway wows fans in win over Canucks

STAPLES: The Oilers have a traffic jam at the wing

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