The funny thing about the NFL offseason is how we spend months trying to put together narratives—only to watch them all get blown up after Weeks 1 or 2.
No matter how much you convince yourself know how things will play out, the NFL loves to prove everyone wrong.
So maybe you’ll consider these seven bets listed below as longshots, but they’re on this list for a reason. We absolutely love them. It’s not just that they have a chance to return a huge profit, but they’re also incredibly fun to root for in the process.
Best of luck to all who tail.
All odds via Tipico Sportsbook
The Broncos will finish in last place in the AFC West (+270)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Robert Zeglinski: I think everyone’s counting on a mid-30s Russell Wilson having a resurgence a little too much. We’re also not sure what Nathaniel Hackett actually brings to the table as a head coach, and the Broncos defense is a little thin outside of the secondary. Plus, everyone else in the AFC West has more top-end talent, experience, and being battle-tested matters. Russ will cook … a frozen dinner in the microwave.
Mike Tomlin will win his second NFL Coach of the Year Award (+3000)
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
Blake Schuster: Yeah, I know, I’m pretty surprised Tomlin’s odds are that high, too. After all, he’s won the award before and has a pretty talented—albeit raw—roster to work with this season. Two of the Rookie of the Year favorites (Kenny Pickett and George Pickens) join an offense with a Pro Bowl tailback in Najee Harris and a stacked wideout corps. Oh, and TJ Watt is still anchoring the defense. Add in the fact that Tomlin has never had a season below .500 and there’s plenty to like here. The Steelers are +900 to win the AFC North and +600 to finish second. Either of those outcomes should have Tomlin squarely in play for COY.
The Carolina Panthers will win the NFC South (+1000)
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Christian D’Andrea:
My lowkey underdog bet? The Steelers at +280 to make the playoffs. But that’s not particularly exciting.
Betting on Baker Mayfield and a head coach who has yet to win more than six games in a season to dethrone Tom Brady? That’s more like it. The Panthers have a rising young defense capable of generating havoc and have Mayfield playing furiously to regain the reputation his Browns were wildly eager to trash. He’s got a solid receiving corps, useful offensive line and a dynamite tailback duo in Christian McCaffrey and D’Onta Foreman – top 20 in both yards after contact and broken tackle rate last season! – stay healthy.
Betting against Touchdown Tom is a fool’s errand, but he’s 45 years old, behind an offensive line that’s missing the bulk of its interior protection from seasons past, and distracted by his upcoming gig on the Masked Singer, where he and Jenny McCarthy probably shared some increasingly heinous lifestyle tips. The Panthers have two guys who need to win this season to keep their NFL dreams alive and they’re the most important two guys in the locker room. Alright, I’m on board.
NFC Conference winner: Dallas (+900)
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Andy Nesbitt: I know their offensive line just suffered a huge loss but it feels like it could be the time for Dak Prescott and Co. to actually do something in the postseason. The NFC is there for the taking this year with a 45-year-old Tom Brady, a Packers team that always falls short of the Super Bowl, a Rams team with a Super Bowl hangover, and a 49ers team with questions at QB. The Cowboys in the Super Bowl would be good for business, too, so let’s go all in here and then be disappointed like all Dallas fans when they fail to get to the NFC title game yet again.
A team will go 0-17 (+700)
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Prince J. Grimes: The AFC West is freaking loaded, so is the North. And several other divisions have multiple playoff contenders. You don’t get that type of parity at the top of the league without creating a vacuum at the bottom. And boy, what a bottom it is. Between the Bears, Texans, Falcons, Jets and maybe even a couple of others, the bottom-tier teams of the NFL have promising individual talent but are incredibly depressing as a whole. Seeing a team go winless last season wouldn’t have been all that jarring, let alone this year.
Derek Carr to win MVP (+3000)
AP Photo/Kirk Irwin
Jordan Tomiyama: Derek Carr has all the weapons, including adding his BFF Davante Adams, so he is primed for a massive year. The AFC West is probably the best division in football so if the Raiders are in position to win it and he’s racking up TDs? I think he’ll have to be in the conversation for Most Valuable Player. Carr will constantly be in the limelight matching up against star QBs so they’ll have plenty of eyes on him if he’s torching opposing defenses.
Jalen Hurts will be a legitimate MVP candidate (+2000)
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Robert Zeglinski: Now, this might not necessarily be the boldest thought considering everyone’s buying into the Eagles’ hype. But few QBs around the league are in as optimal a position to succeed as Hurts. In addition to a second full year in Nick Sirianni’s offensive scheme, Hurts now gets to throw to AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Philly is revitalized and will ride on the arms and legs of the MVP-level Hurts to the top of the NFC.
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