As we inch closer to the start of the 2022 NFL season, expectations remain extraordinarily high for the Kansas City Chiefs. There was a time when picking the Chiefs to make the playoffs was considered a bold prediction. A Super Bowl win and four consecutive AFC title game appearances later and that narrative has mostly flipped. Yet, there are still some detractors who feel Kansas City is in for a struggle in 2022.
The NFL season is always filled with shock, intrigue and things you’d least expect, which makes predictions exceptionally tough. With that in mind, here are a few of the things (perhaps considered bold) that we think will happen for the Chiefs in 2022:
Patrick Mahomes will have an MVP-worthy year
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There has been a lot of chatter this offseason about how Patrick Mahomes will look without Tyreek Hill on the field. Well, he answered those concerns emphatically during the preseason. Through two preseason games, Mahomes led the team on three drives. He went 18-for-26 for 222 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 133.8 passer rating on those three drives. He spread the ball around during each of those drives too, with nearly a dozen different receivers targeted.
It really looks like Mahomes hasn’t missed a beat despite losing his top wide receiver. Should that be the case when the NFL season begins, I fully expect him to be in the running for the MVP award again. Whether he wins it or not remains to be seen, given that he’s been plenty worthy in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but barely earned consideration over Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers (x2).
JuJu Smith-Schuster will have his best season since 2018
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Smith-Schuster is coming off an injury-riddled 2021 campaign with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he’s looking to bounce back to form in Kansas City. His best season came in 2018 when he recorded 111 receptions for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. In 2022, Smith-Schuster looks poised for his best season since.
The Chiefs rewarded JuJu Smith-Schuster with some extra game-based incentives in his contract ahead of the 2022 NFL season. I take that to mean that the team knows just how valuable he’s going to be to this offense. He looked like the new WR1 in Kansas City throughout the preseason and I expect him to be heavily involved in the offense early and often.
The running game will look the best it has in a while
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The Chiefs haven’t exactly been the most efficient team when it comes to running the football over the last few years. They’ve averaged around 4.5 yards per carry on the season since 2020, which is also right around the league average. It feels like the 2022 NFL season could be one of the team’s best in recent memory when it comes to running the ball.
Firstly, the team has a deep stable of running backs this year, deeper than they’ve been in several seasons. Rookie Isiah Pacheco and veteran Ronald Jones provide crucial depth and a changeup from what they already had. The Chiefs will also return the same starting five on the offensive line from last year. Shockingly, this is the first time that’s happened in Kansas City since Andy Reid took over as head coach in 2013. That carryover and chemistry should help the run game improve.
The defense has its fastest start of the Steve Spagnuolo era
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Since Steve Spagnuolo arrived in Kansas City back in 2019, his defense has always needed a few weeks to settle in and play their best football. In 2019, it took until Week 11 for the defense to really start to gel. In 2020, it was much quicker with the team looking good by Week 4. Last season, it took the team until Week 8 to really find their stride and they needed the trade acquisition of Melvin Ingram to really jump-start that.
It feels like the defense is set up for success early in 2022, despite a few things that many expect to work against them. They have a lot of new pieces and young players, but they all seemed to be caught up and on the same page during the course of the preseason. The starting unit allowed no points on three drives, forcing punts on each occasion. Spagnuolo preached patience with this group, but what we’ve seen to this point suggests they might be further along than anyone could have predicted.
Travis Kelce will have his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season
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The law of averages has many people thinking that Kelce is due for a down season in 2022. He’s been on a historic tear when it comes to 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Yet, Kelce is 32 years old entering the 2022 NFL season and he no longer benefits from the threat of Tyreek Hill on the field. I don’t tend to believe that the last part will have much of an impact on Kelce. He’s always found a way to produce, even when Hill wasn’t on the team yet.
Father time will eventually catch up to Kelce, but I’m not sure it’ll be this year. He participated in every ounce of the team’s voluntary offseason program because he knows that he needs to keep himself in tip-top condition (and set an example for the young players). Even so, he never relied solely on his athleticism or speed to produce. It’s always been his understanding of route running and his ability to find the open space on the field that has made him a special receiver. For that reason, I think he’ll continue his streak and put up his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season.
George Karlaftis will break the Chiefs’ rookie sack record
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The rookie sack record for the Chiefs is within reach for rookie DE George Karlaftis. It’s hard to imagine anyone breaking the record, set by Hall of Fame LB Derrick Thomas, who recorded 10 sacks as a rookie back in 1989. The record has stood for 32 years in Kansas City, despite the team’s strong history of great defensive play and pass rush.
Why do I think this record is within reach for Karlaftis, though? The rookie product from Purdue had 5 pressures, including two sacks in just 56 defensive snaps during the preseason. If he keeps producing at that same rate once the season begins, he’ll only need 560 defensive snaps to hit 10 sacks on the year. That’s around 60 snaps shy of the total snaps that Frank Clark recorded in 2021. It’s definitely possible, even with a strong rotation of pass-rushers for the Chiefs this season.
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