Wednesday’s MLB slate is packed, as every team is set to take the field.
With so much action taking place throughout the day — six games are scheduled before 5 pm ET — our staff came through with four best bets focused on the evening games.
It doesn’t matter if the game is between playoff contenders (Blue Jays vs. Orioles) or teams already looking forward to next season (Pirates vs. Diamondbacks. We have you covered either way.
Check out all four of our best bets for Wednesday below, and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Brad Cunningham: Jose Berrios has been quite awful in Toronto this season.
His xERA of 5.48 is literally the worst mark among qualified starting pitchers this season. He’s allowing a .278 xBA, .500 xSLG, a 45.1% hard hit rate and .430 xwOBACON, all of which are in the bottom 10% among MLB pitchers.
Berrios utilizes his curveball more than any other pitch, and wouldn’t you know it — the Orioles have a +14.3 run value against curveballs, which ranks second in MLB.
Dean Kremer owns a 5.03 xERA, 4.67 xFIP and finds himself in the bottom 10% of starting pitchers in xwOBA allowed, xBA allowed and xSLG allowed.
Kremer utilizes mainly a fastball/cutter combination, which really isn’t going to work against the Blue Jays because they’re top-10 against both pitches with a combined +34.5 run value.
I have 5.9 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on over 4.5 runs at -120.
Jules Posner: The Kansas City Royals look to gain the upper hand in their four-game series against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.
Kris Bubic takes the hill for the Kansas City, and he’s quietly been very solid since being recalled to the MLB team in June.
Since June 4, he’s posted a 3.76 ERA with a 4.11 FIP and 4.26 xFIP. He’s also been on a solid run over his past four starts, pitching at least six innings and allowing three runs or fewer against the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees.
His opposition, Johnny Cueto, has been solid this season — especially on the road — but the White Sox suffered a huge loss after Tim Anderson was diagnosed with a torn ligament in his hand. Without Anderson, the White Sox are kind of like a turtle on their back, as Tony La Russa seems to get flustered with how to set his lineup without his premier lead-off hitter.
The Sox are 14-17 when Anderson doesn’t play, making them much more vulnerable. Additionally, the Royals have returned Salvador Perez and have gone 6-6 since his return while facing a tough schedule.
The Royals are also slightly above average against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, while the White Sox have been slightly below average against left-handers on the road over the past month (large enough sample to compare).
Therefore, the Royals may have a slight edge as underdogs today.
The Royals’ first-five inning run line is set at +155, which seems really high for a team that has played the White Sox tough at home this season. Taking the first five also factors out the Royals’ very unreliable bullpen.
If you can grab the KC run line at -0.5 around the +150 mark, that would be a great value — but this can be played from +130 or better.
Kenny Ducey: It’s not exactly surprising, but both pitchers dueling tonight in Colorado have bad numbers at Coors Field. In five career starts in the Mile High City, Jose Quintana owns a 5.93 ERA, and this season, Kyle Freeland has pitched to a 5.55 ERA in 11 home starts.
It would appear that both offenses are in line for a solid night.
Colorado ranks 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and grades out as an above-average team in that department against left-handed pitching. The Cardinals are in the midst of a hot streak at the plate, which only helps considering they’re second in wRC+ to lefties.
Regardless of the venue, I’d find it hard to trust either pitcher here. Freeland’s hard-hit rate is way up to 41.3% with a very high .268 xBA and 4.84 xERA. Quintana has strung together a few good starts in a row over the Marlins, Phillies and Cubs but should find this test a bit tougher.
On top of that, he’s been fortunate to hold his ERA to 3.38 with peripherals like a .367 xwOBA on contact pointing to a very middling pitcher.
DJ James: Mitch Keller and the Pirates will face off this evening against Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks in Phoenix.
Over the course of the last month, Pittsburgh has an 81 wRC+ off of left-handed pitching. Arizona’s sits at 93 off of righties. This does not bode well for either squad hitting-wise in this game.
Yes, Arizona is a hitter-friendly park, but if neither team can piece together consistent plate appearances against this side of the pitching rubber, it won’t matter.
In the last month, Pittsburgh has two hitters above a .330 xwOBA off of southpaws: Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
The D-backs are slightly better with four hitters above that mark: Jordan Luplow, Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, and Daulton Varsho. Either way, the majority of each lineup will not look strong against these starting pitchers.
Yes, neither Keller nor Bumgarner has encouraging peripherals. Each will allow more hard-hit balls than the average starter, but this should not matter. Keller is right in line with expectations with a 4.28 xERA. Bumgarner’s is 5.01, but he rarely walks anyone, and Pittsburgh ranks in the middle-of-the-pack in walk percentage off of lefties.
Take the under at 8.5 (-118), and play to 8 (-120). This still has value for two teams that struggle with these types of starting pitchers.