A weekend full of baseball gets started this afternoon with Brewers vs. Cubs, but there’s plenty of appealing matchups this evening as well.
Included in those are a trio of important divisional matchups. Our analysts have picks on Mets vs. Phillies, Blue Jays vs. Yankees and White Sox Guardians, as well as an additional late-night start between the Nationals and Padres.
Here are our four best bets from Friday night’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mets vs. Phillies
Brad Cunningham: This total is far too high with these two starting pitchers on the mound.
Chris Bassitt has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this season. He has an xERA of 3.11, he’s allowing a 31% hard hit rate (91st percentile), and opposing hitters only have an 85.2 mph average exit velocity against him (95th percentile).
He has five different pitches that he goes to over 10% of the time and outside of his slider, every pitch is allowing an xwOBA under .270, which is really impressive. The Phillies have a .311 wOBA against right-handed pitching (13th in MLB) and just put up zero runs against Bassitt five days ago.
Aaron Nola has legitimately been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His xERA of 2.76 is tied with Carlos Rodon for the best mark in the National and fifth best in baseball. Opposing hitters only have a .211 xBA, .347 xSLG, and .262 xwOBA against him this season, all of which are above the 85th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
The Mets’ lineup really isn’t as scary as everyone makes it out to be. They only have three guys (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo) who have a xwOBA over .330.
I only have 6.9 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8 Under 7.5 runs at -110 or better.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
DJ James: Jameson Taillon has been a decent part of the New York Yankees rotation, but he’s vulnerable tonight.
While Taillon has a 3.95 ERA and 4.04 xERA, his xBA and xSLG are both below average. Yes, the Jays are struggling off of right-handers this month, but overall the Jays rank fifth in wRC+ off of righties at 115.
The Blue Jays also have seven hitters above a .320 xwOBA, so this means the bulk of their lineup should put together a strong plate appearance when a righty is on the hill. Taillon owned a 5.04 ERA in July and has a 5.30 ERA in August.
His luster has worn off a little bit, and the Blue Jays will take advantage early in this game. He has seen the Jays twice this season, but both outings were before the break when he was riding high.
Even if the Blue Jays have not shown much at the dish with a right-hander on the bump lately, they have enough pieces to score at least two runs off of Taillon in the first five innings.
Take Toronto’s team total over at 1.5 (-135) to 2.5 (-100) in the first five.
White Sox vs. Guardians
Alex Hinton: When Jose Ramirez is in the lineup, it is usually a good thing for the Cleveland Guardians and for us as bettors.
He comes into play today hitting .281 with 22 home runs and 98 runs batted in. He ranks third in the majors in RBI and 10th in OPS. He is also second in the majors in doubles and sixth in total bases. A double from Ramirez would quickly cash this total bases line.
A homer would do the trick as well and Ramirez is a great matchup to go yard on Friday night. He will be facing Lance Lynn and he is 8-for-23 with three home runs and seven RBI against him in his career.
Lynn has struggled this season, going 3-5 with a 5.62 ERA. He is 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA on the road and he allowed eight runs in four innings in his last start in Cleveland.
Ramirez averages 2.05 total bases per game. He also has had at least two total bases in three of the last four games. I will gladly take more money in this spot.
Nationals vs. Padres
Jules Posner: Blake Snell has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half. Over his past six starts he’s posted a 0.94 ERA and a 1.38 FIP. He’s been dominant and he’s been dominant at home.
Paolo Espino gets the start for the Nationals and he’s been struggling of late. Over his past four starts his ERA is over 6 and his FIP is near 6 as well. He’ll be taking on a Padres offense that is second best in MLB against RHP over the past two weeks. Additionally, he’s supported by one of the worst bullpens in the league.
The Padres are only 5-5 over their last 10 games, but after an east coast road trip, they should bounce back Friday night after a surprise loss on Thursday.
Their run line opened around -150 for -1.5 and moved to -155 overnight. On the plus side, the -2.5 spread moved to +100 overnight and if you are comfortable with that run line, that would be a fine play.
However, splitting up units on both may not be a bad idea either. I wouldn’t go beyond -155 for -1.5, but -2.5 could be played at -110 or better.