Shohei Ohtani is poised to perhaps destroy all semblance of what baseball contracts used to be. He is going to be a free agent after the 2023 season and because of what he does and how well he does it, he is unlike (and perhaps better than) any other MLB player in history.
His two-way status could pave the way for the sport’s first $500 million contract. Lifetime and mega contracts are being handed out to almost anyone, so Ohtani will definitely get one.
However, Shohei Ohtani might have cost himself a lot of money in the short term by agreeing to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration. MLB insider Jim Bowden told the Athletic:
“In October, Ohtani inexplicably agreed to a one-year, $30 million contract for the 2023 season, despite the fact he was arbitration-eligible and with five years of service time could have compared himself to every player in the game.”
He added:
“He was the AL MVP in 2021 and the runner-up to Judge this year. Judge was just paid $40 million per year; Correa was paid $35 million for 2022 and just signed a new deal for $350 million. As a two-way star player, Ohtani is a unique case, and he would’ve had a strong argument for a contract in the $35 million to $45 million range.”
He continued:
“But I think it would have been easy to convince an arbitrator that as a two-player unicorn, Ohtani should be paid more in recognition of what he provides as both a pitcher and a hitter.”
There hasn’t really been a player like Ohtani, so there’s no real way to gauge his value, but it could’ve been a lot more than $30 million.
What could a Shohei Ohtani contract look like?
The longest contract in MLB history was handed to Fernando Tatis Jr. and it was an extension of 14 years.
When Shohei Ohtani is a free agent, he will be 29. It’s not reasonable to think he’d be signed well into his 40s, but a 10-year deal is probably the minimum.
It is totally reasonable for an 11-year, $500 million contract to be handed down. Anything short of a cumulative value of $450 million would be a shock, too.
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