The Miami Heat very nearly pulled off a wild comeback against the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season. But Jimmy Butler missed his potential game-winning three, the Celtics hit a pair of free throws, and their season ended just like that. Now the Heat will try to make it back to the spot they worked so hard to make it last season.
Miami’s plan for success is much different than every other playoff team in the NBA. They have a solid star duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way, but behind them there aren’t many players who stand out. They rely on unearthing hidden gems and playing a strong brand of defense to win games and make deep playoff runs.
Considering they have made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in two of the past three seasons, it’s hard to argue with their strategy. But neither of those trips have yielded a championship, and it’s fair to wonder whether that will change for the Heat this season. Let’s take a look at three reasons why things won’t change this season, and the Heat will end up falling short of winning the 2023 NBA Finals.
3. The Heat made no upgrades to their rotation this offseason
The Heat had a strong rotation during their playoff run last season, but it’s clear there were holes that needed fixing this offseason. With Tyler Herro missing the majority of the Heat’s series against the Celtics, Miami lacked the ability to consistently create open looks in a half-court setting. If you took away fastbreak points and the Heat caught the Celtics defense off guard, their offense wouldn’t have many points.
Adding more offense and shot creation to their rotation this offseason should have been a key goal of Miami’s. Aside from re-signing their own players and adding undrafted free agents, the Heat’s biggest move this offseason involved drafting Nikola Jovic with the 27th overall pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. Jovic doesn’t exactly seem likely to contribute to the 2022-23 Heat much either, for what it’s worth.
Miami was heavily involved in trade rumors for star players such as Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Donovan Mitchell this offseason, but they ended up missing out on all of those guys and did nothing to improve their team that came a win away from advancing to the Finals last season. Considering all the talent in the Eastern Conference, that feels like a big mistake.
2. The Heat have a big hole in their lineup
While Miami’s primary objective was re-signing their players this offseason, they forgot about PJ Tucker, who played a huge role in their playoff run last season. Tucker gutted it out for much of the series against the Celtics while playing at less than 100 percent health, and he was a big reason for Jayson Tatum’s offensive struggles during that series.
Tucker was a liability offensively if he wasn’t hitting his threes, but he was a huge part of what they did on defense. He left for the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason, leaving the Heat with a hole at their starting power forward position that still hasn’t really been filled. Duncan Robinson is penciled in as the team’s starting power forward, and if that ends up happening, things probably won’t go too well for the Heat.
Miami could shift Butler to power forward and play Max Strus at small forward while inserting Herro into the starting lineup at shooting guard, but the Heat love to bring Herro off the bench for whatever reason. Letting Tucker leave hurt, but failing to replace him could hurt even more.
1. The Heat don’t have the top-end talent to win in the Eastern Conference
The Heat have become a case study in the NBA due to their ability to always make deep playoff runs despite not having star studded teams. As mentioned earlier, Butler and Adebayo are the only two players worthy of star status on their team. Many of the guys in their rotation are players most NBA fans wouldn’t recognize if they came across them in public.
Miami did get a bit fortunate to watch unknown players such as Strus and Gabe Vincent put together very strong seasons last year. Maybe it will happen again this season. But given the fact Miami made no upgrades to their roster, and are relying on players who haven’t exactly been consistent throughout their careers, it feels like they could regress this upcoming season.
It’s tough to see a path to the Finals for the Heat when all of the Eastern Conference competitors made some upgrades this offseason. Sometimes when you make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, you don’t really need to make upgrades, but that doesn’t feel like the case here. The Heat have been ruled out before, but looking at their roster and their competition, it’s tough to see them winning the 2023 NBA Finals.
