Monday’s MLB slate is thin. After White Sox vs. Royals this afternoon, there are eight other games under the lights, but still plenty of intriguing matchups and an abundance of value to be found.
Our analysts have found angles on three games: Angels vs. Rays, Cardinals vs. Cubs and Brewers vs. Dodgers.
Here are our three best bets from Monday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Angels vs. Rays
Jules Posner: Jeffrey Springs has been solid at home so far this season. He’s posted a 2.67 ERA, a 4.01 FIP and a 3.53 xFIP as a starter at home this season. He’s also been in form in August, posting a sub-2 ERA and FIP.
He’ll be taking on an Angels offense that’s bottom third in MLB on the road vs. LHP over the past month. They also struggled Sunday against Eduardo Rodriguez and could not pile on Tyler Alexander on Saturday after scoring on him early.
Tucker Davidson gets the start for the Angels and he has struggled to find consistency this season. He has a 5.46 FIP, has posted a 4.76 K/9 and is walking at a 6.75 BB/9 clip. The Rays have been about league average against LHP at home, but you can’t give a team like the Rays free bases no matter how thinned out they are by injury.
The Rays’ run line opened at -1.5 at +115, but moved to +105 overnight. That should be the play as long as it remains in plus money.
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Nicholas Martin: Over the last 30 days, St. Louis holds the best wRC+ in the league at 146, and on the season the Cards have also been the most effective team in the league to this point against left-handed pitching.
A matchup versus Drew Smyly at Wrigley should offer a solid spot for those trends to continue, and in particular this projects as a good spot for Paul Goldschmidt to stay hot.
Goldschmidt has remained in spectacular form over the last 12 games, slugging .826, which is the best mark in the MLB during that time. In those 12 contests, he has put 10 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater against left-handed pitching alone.
And on the season Goldy’s numbers against lefties have been ridiculous, with a .848 SLG rate and 1.375 OPS.
At -110, I see value backing Goldschmidt to hit for over 1.5 total bases in this spot, and I would play this prop down to -115.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Tanner McGrath: The Dodgers are the best lineup in baseball. A nine-man force of nature that’s produced runs at a 21% better rate than the average baseball team. But if you’re ever looking to fade them, fade them against a southpaw.
On the season, the Dodgers have produced a 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is ninth in baseball.
Is that bad? No. But it’s a significant enough difference to create market inefficiencies.
Enter Eric Lauer, the Brewers lefty who has pitched to a 3.58 ERA this season over 22 starts and 125 innings. While he doesn’t have special stuff and has slightly overperformed his statistics, Lauer does boast a career 2.56 ERA against the Dodgers.
In the meantime, LA’s Julio Urias is having another special year, accumulating 2.7 fWAR through an ERA below 2.50 and an xERA below 2.80. He should have no issues shutting down a Brewers lineup that has posted an 86 wRC+ against southpaws this season. It’s also worth mentioning Urias has a career 2.01 ERA against the Brewers.
Given these are also two shutdown bullpens (second and fourth in reliever xFIP), I love the under 8 (-120) available at DraftKings. The number has already moved down to 7.5 at most books and is picking up the smart money (51% of tickets, 79% of handles).
I feel very comfortable at 8. But, if the number moves, I’d likely need EV or better to consider the 7.5.
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