Welcome to the 2023 edition of my annual ranking of every NHL team’s prospect pools.
This 31-day project counts down to the NHL organization with the best collection of prospects, totaling nearly 100,000 words of evaluation on nearly 500 prospects. This page will update daily from Jan. 9 to Feb. 8.
Throughout, I have made a regular effort to feature quotes and insight from sources about these players. However, the evaluations and rankings themselves (both of individual prospects and each team’s farm system overall) are strictly my own. These assessments are the byproduct of countless viewings (both on tape and in person) and conversations spanning several years. Wherever my exposure to a prospect is limited, I have said so and relied more heavily on others.
Each list this year will include up to a maximum of 15 prospects (plus honorable mentions) per organization, down from the 20-player cap of previous projects in the interest of length and evaluating only prospects who have a moderate chance at making the NHL.
To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:
- Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
- Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played before the cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
- Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.
To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:
- Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of goalies who are very much still prospects.
- Not currently being established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.
The rankings are also broken down into team-specific tiers in order to provide you with better insight into the gaps between groups of prospects, as well as a sense for the potential fluidity within those groups. The tiers are not universal across the league and do not have pre-set boundaries or projections in an effort to avoid (as best I can) boxing prospects into black-and-white expectations.
You will, however, notice the consistent emphasis placed on upside and skill in my rankings. These are not rankings based on proximity to the NHL. A player with top-of-the-lineup potential may rank higher than a player with NHL experience who projects into a depth role, even sometimes in cases where the former is less likely to reach his ceiling than the latter. Teams who’ve consistently swung on talent, instead of playing it safe, will tend to grade higher overall. I believe that approach should be the foundation of modern scouting. In the long run, the teams that will distinguish themselves in a league built on parity are those who will develop homegrown stars that can make an impact, in a cap world, early on in their earning power. Those are the sport’s most precious resource, particularly when depth pieces are so readily available through trades and free agency. My rankings should reflect that.
For more insight into my experience, my process, the things I look for, and my potential biases and limitations, check out my guide to scouting. And for a second opinion on many of these players, check out the work of The Athletic‘s Corey Pronman in his NHL pipeline rankings, last released in August.
The Ranking
After making just 11 of their allotted 21 picks in the last three drafts in pursuit of their Stanley Cup, and after trading some of the prospects that they did have, the Avalanche’s stable of young prospects has taken a hit. They do still have a few kids of interest, but the improvement of the pool will be a work-in-progress long term as they’ve already moved half a dozen of their selections in the next two drafts as well.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photographs; Bruce Bennett, Dale Preston/Getty Images; (Paul Sancy/AP)
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