2023 NFL Draft roundtable: Who’s too high (or too low) in the top-50 rankings?

Our draft guru, Dane Brugler, did the hard work: Over the past month-plus, he released his 2023 NFL Draft positional previews, all leading up to his preseason Big Board of the top 50 prospects. And now, because what’s most fun about the draft process is arguing over the details, it’s our turn to critique Dane’s work.

So, our team dove into that top-50 list to determine what makes sense, what (maybe) doesn’t, and what’s going to change as college football kicks off.

Which player(s) on the preseason top 50 should be ranked higher?

Nick Baumgardner: I’m super interested in where Dane has the receivers slotted. Not necessarily with LSU’s Kayshon Boutte (No. 14 on the top 50) being above Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but the fact Smith-Njigba is down there at No. 17. This surely speaks to the questions about the WRs at the top of the class (there are none in the top 10).

I think we could make a case for both of those guys being somewhere in the top 10, especially Smith-Njigba. I understand the concerns about his game with regard to him being smallish and perhaps unable to match the speed both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave had. But he knows how to open. He had 95 catches last season in that extremely crowded offense. He’s slippery, he can finish in the air and his body control is outstanding.

Smith-Njigba is impossible for most Big Ten defenders to handle alone. It’s very hard to ignore the production. He might be a guy who isn’t everyone’s cup of tea physically but winds up going higher than we expect come draft weekend.

Diante Lee: To be a part of the NFL Draft universe is to be in the business of picking nits. Since we’re doing it, though, I’d like to see LB Noah Sewell (No. 22) slotted higher than his current station. A thumper, in every sense of the word. Sewell also brings the motor and football IQ to find the ball in space and affect the game outside the tackles when it’s asked of him.

Of course, that begs the question: Which defensive players should he jump in the top 50? And far be it for me to advocate against some of the elite talent this class features up front. But Sewell’s fluidity of movement in his running fits and his violence as a tackler at the point of contact is a rare combination defensively. I’d imagine spending time in new Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s scheme will do even more to feature Sewell’s best traits as a downhill defender.

Nate Tice: Doubt Dane at your own peril! But as I look at it right now, I can see CB Joey Porter Jr. (No. 32) climbing the charts just a bit as the draft process goes on. Porter is a physical corner who can play inside and outside. He is a smart player with ball skills, although he can get a little too handsy at times. He seems to relish the times he gets to play press and reminds me quite a bit of the Bills’ 2022 first-round selection Kaiir Elam, out of Florida.

Another one: WR Quentin Johnston (No. 28) from TCU, who has the combination of size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) and functional athleticism that other top wide receiver prospects cannot really match. He doesn’t enter the season with the box-score statistics (55 career catches) that other players do, but he has been an explosive option (20.4 career yards per catch). While his tape is littered with highlight-reel plays — it speaks to his hand-eye coordination that he was able to pull down as many off-target throws as he was — he will still have to continue to add to his route tree. If he does polish his skill set, he’ll climb for teams that value size at the receiver position.

Which player(s) on the preseason top 50 should be ranked lower?

Lee: Blame this perspective on my time in coaching, but I’m not yet comfortable with TE Arik Gilbert (No. 19) landing in the top 20 until we have a more representative sample size to evaluate. That says little about Gilbert’s ability and potential — we’ve all had the athletic prototype on our radars since he was in high school. At 19, though, he’s neighboring prospects on Dane’s list that have enough tape to cement themselves among the best players at their respective positions.

Another player I’m a bit skeptical of is edge Will McDonald IV (No. 30) from Iowa State. His measurables check the boxes and his production suggests real potential as an NFL edge rusher, but he needs to improve as an edge-setting defensive lineman and flash real traits as a rusher before I’m all the way in on him. Iowa State runs a bespoke defense by draft-evaluation standards — the drop-8 coverage scheme leads to pressure stemming from QB confusion just as often as it does from McDonald’s get-off and hip mobility.

Tice: I could have answered QB Anthony Richardson (No. 27) for too low and too high. He could easily ascend up draft boards if he continues to become a more consistent quarterback, as opposed to a bundle of tools; he could easily fall the other way if there is a less-than-satisfactory bump in play.

CB Clark Phillips III (No. 23) is a fun football player but I do think his size (5-10, 185) will cause the more traits-focused teams to pause before slapping a grade on him. This isn’t a knock on Phillips, the football player — he’s heady and a fluid mover with good ball skills. But teams will make sure he can hold up at the next level.

Baumgardner: Well it’s not Will Anderson (No. 1), I’ll say that. But Dane is going to reset some betting lines again before this is all over, with Trenton Simpson (No. 6) and Siaki Ika (No. 13).

Both are very interesting players. Simpson absolutely flashed last season, especially against Georgia. He can rush, cover and play the run — he has the potential to be an all-everything defender. But that’s also pretty tough to pull off. There is a lot Simpson can do. Will he be able to pull all of it off at a high level? It’ll be fascinating to watch and find out.

Same with Ika, who was the best defensive lineman in the Big 12 last year after starting his career at LSU. Both guys have big-time traits that are impossible to ignore could be breakouts. Credit Dane later.

Who are your favorite prospects outside of the top 50?

Baumgardner: I love North Carolina WR Josh Downs, who is small (5-10, 171) but very explosive and a lot of fun to watch. When he gets moving at full throttle, college defenders in man coverage are toast. He’s got great body lean and can change direction in a hiccup.

Another guy that I like a lot is Dane’s fifth-ranked running back, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker. Tucker has all he needs to be an every-down back who runs with power and speed. As a true junior this season, he’s still working on the finer points of … well, everything. But he’ll be one to watch all season.

Tice: I thought quarterback Tyler Van Dyke from Miami would sneak into the top 50, right around the same range that Dane had Stanford QB Tanner McKee (No. 49). Van Dyke will be a bet on size and willingness to push the ball down the field, with enough athleticism to make plays with his legs when needed. The Hurricanes’ offense last year featured tons of simple vertical concepts and wide-receiver screens, of some sort. And I mean tons. So, the new regime in Miami could help or hinder Van Dyke’s progress. But even a slightly more open-up offense will let evaluators determine the breadth of his game.

On the defensive side, I think Wisconsin defensive tackle Keeanu Benton’s name will rise. Benton has been a dominant interior presence since he arrived in Madison. Playing mostly at nose tackle, he has the length to consistently keep offensive linemen at bay, plus enough athleticism to break gaps in the interior. Benton has a wrestling background that shows up in his play, and teams will like his ability to eat blocks to keep other teammates clean.

Lee: Modern football continues to change the body type and role of the nickel/sam linebacker, so the draft is always an interesting place to track where priorities lie for building out a defensive lineup. There are diverging approaches to the slot defender depending on the scheme — use a true cover corner when Cover 1 is the preference; play with “big nickel” types when using split-safety coverage shells, to get that player back in the running fit. TCU’s Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson would be an ideal fit for the former, and Arkansas’ Jalen Catalon for the latter.

At 5-9, Hodges-Tomlinson is comfortable playing in off coverage and recovering from disadvantageous leverage or depth to affect the ball at the catch point. He has great body control and enough fluidity to handle a full route tree. He also demonstrated enough aggression and willingness to tackle in 2021 to make me feel comfortable that he can succeed in one-on-one situations against receivers.

For Catalon, where he’s playing now (deep safety in Arkansas’ three-high-safety scheme) won’t be where he fits best at the next level. But what he may lack in explosive speed, he makes up for in feeling and spatial awareness. And he thrives tackling on the perimeter against running backs, tight ends and receivers. As more teams embrace quarterback coverage on early downs, Catalon can fit right in as an underneath defender.

(Top photo of Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)