The order for the first 18 picks in the 2023 MLB Draft won’t be determined until the first-ever Draft lottery, which is expected to take place during the Winter Meetings in San Diego in December. But most of the rest of the first round has fallen into place.
Teams picked in reverse order of winning percentage for the first 58 Drafts, alternating by league from 1965-2004. As part of the new collective bargaining agreement this year, all 18 non-playoff teams will enter a lottery for the top six selections, and the order of all postseason clubs (picks 19 through 30) will be determined by when they get eliminated and their revenue-sharing status.
Postseason teams will choose in this order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner. Within each of those groups, clubs will be sorted by revenue-sharing status: teams that are non-disqualified recipients, teams that pay a competitive-balance tax and teams that neither receive payouts nor pay a competitive-balance tax.
The Wild Card Series losers will select 19 through 22, in this order: Rays (recipient, 86-76), Blue Jays (neither, 92-70), Cardinals (neither, 93-69), Mets (CBT payor, 101- 61). Then come the Division Series losers at picks 23 through 26, in this order: Mariners (recipient, 90-72), Guardians (recipient, 92-70), Braves (recipient, 101-61), Dodgers (CBT payor, 111- 51).
The Astros are the lone Championship Series participant that does not owe a CBT payment, and both National League clubs won fewer regular-season games than their American League counterparts. So the Astros will choose 27th and the Yankees will pick 28th, depending on which bows out in the ALCS, with the NLCS loser slotting into the other position.
Below, we’ve laid out how the first round shapes up as of now. Note that after the first round, the lottery results won’t affect picks 1-18, which will be in reverse order of winning percentage.
Draft lottery odds for No. 1 overall pick
1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5%
2. Athletics (60-102), 16.5%
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5%
4. Reds (62-100), 13.25%
5. Royals (65-97), 10.00%
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.50%
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.50%
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.90%
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.70%
10. Angels (73-89), 1.80%
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.40%
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.10%
13. Twins (78-84), 0.90%
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.76%
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.62%
16. Giants (81-81), 0.48%
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.36%
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.23%
19. Rays (Wild Card loser, recipient, 86-76)
20. Blue Jays (Wild Card loser, neither, 92-70)
21. Cardinals (Wild Card loser, neither, 93-69)
22. Mets (Wild Card loser, CBT payor, 101-61)
23. Mariners (LDS loser, recipient, 90-72)
24. Guardians (LDS loser, recipient, 92-70)
25. Braves (LDS loser, recipient, 101-61)
26. Dodgers (LDS loser, CBT payor, 111-51)
27. LCS loser (Astros, Phillies or Padres)
28. LCS loser (Phillies, Padres or Yankees)
29. World Series loser
30. World Series winner
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