The PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, this week to honor the late Byron Nelson at his namesake event, which has been a staple on the schedule for decades. While many of the game’s top names will be resting before next week’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill, a worthy crop of challengers, including Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tom Kim, will all look to prevent KH Lee from winning his third consecutive title at TPC Craig Ranch.
This will be the third iteration of this event at the Tom Weiskopf design, which has failed to provide much of a pushback in its first two years as the host venue. KH Lee has triumphed at 25 and 26 under par in both occurrences, and birdies will once again be the currency this week in the Lone Star state.
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AT&T Byron Nelson: Course Preview
TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch was designed in 2004 by Tom Weiskopf and features Zoysia fairways, Bent-grass greens, and tips out to 7,468 yards on the scorecard. What you see is essentially what you get at TPC Craig Ranch. It is an incredibly straightforward course with very little strategic value off the tee. The two-and-a-half-inch Bermuda rough isn’t going to be much of a problem for PGA Tour pros, thus placing an emphasis on the second shot. Very similar to what we saw at Vidanta Vallarta two weeks ago, distance and the potential for wind are really the greatest defense that TPC Craig Ranch has. 35.2% of approach shots at the Weiskopf design have come from 200 yards plus, and yet the course has still played as one of the top three easiest on Tour in both 2021 and 2022.
Despite six of the par fours measuring over 450 yards, TPC Craig Ranch’s group of two-shotters played as the third easiest on Tour. Despite ample birdie opportunities, dominating the par fives is an absolute must. All four of them feature over a 40% birdie rate, and 14 of the top 17 players in par five scoring last year finished top-25 on the leaderboard. This week, I will primarily be looking for players that are great long iron players, can take advantage of par fives, and raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions.
AT&T Byron Nelson Key Stats
- Proximity 200 yards plus
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Strokes Gained in Easy Scoring Conditions
AT&T Byron Nelson: Outright Winner
Tyrrell Hatton (+1400) (Bet $100 to collect $1,500) DraftKings has the best Tyrrell Hatton odds (opens in new tab)
Tyrrell Hatton appears to be on the precipice of something special, as he is coming off another contending performance at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he gained 1.6 strokes off the tee and 5.5 strokes on approach. His third at Quail Hollow is the fiery Englishman’s third top-five finish in his last six starts. The other two came at the elevated Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship.
Hatton now enters an event where he is arguably the third-best player in the field. Although he is more known for his performance in difficult conditions, he still ranks sixth in this field in opportunities gained, eighth in birdies or better gained, and 19th in easy scoring conditions. While he has never played TPC Craig Ranch before, he finished sixth this year at the Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale and fourth at Detroit Golf Club, another wide-open, driver-heavy birdie fest. Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth surely provide some intimidation at the top of the odds board, but the value is on Tyrrell Hatton.
Nate Lashley (+11000) (Bet $100 to collect $11,100) Head to DraftKings to get the best Nate Lashley odds (opens in new tab)
Nate Lashley certainly has my attention this week as a sleeper after he gained 6.2 strokes on approach at the Wells Fargo Championship. The former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner is actually in the midst of an incredibly strong season, making eight of 12 cuts with a seventh-place finish at the Sony Open, a 20th at the elevated Genesis Invitational, and a third-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open. Lashley has now gained strokes on approach in five straight starts, and he travels to a golf course that should fit his game to a tee.
The University of Arizona alum is a top-35 long iron player in the field, and he also ranks fifth in this field in par-five scoring. His lone PGA Tour win came at Detroit Golf Club, a similarly wide-open Bent-grass birdie-fest, and he always appears to elevate his game in easy scoring conditions. Ultimately, Lashley is playing some of the best golf of his career, and I trust his ability to keep pace in a birdie-making contest.