Primarily considered a quarterback award, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year could be approaching an evolution.
Since 2006, a quarterback has taken home the award eight times in those 16 years. Last year, Mac Jones appeared poised to hold the trophy before Ja’Marr Chase ripped off multiple 200-plus yard games for the Bengals.
Since 2014, there have been two wide receivers, three running backs, and three quarterbacks to win the award. With no true blue-chip quarterbacks in last year’s draft and only one with higher odds than 50/1, the door is open for another position to win it.
Kenny Pickett is still the odds-on favorite to win the award, despite being listed as the third-string quarterback for the Steelers. It’s a reasonable possibility that Pickett starts at some point this season, but missing several games early clearly puts him behind the eight-ball.
And so, there could be an opportunity for another non-quarterback to swoop in. Below, we break down the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player | Odds |
| Kenny Pickett (PIT) | +700 |
| Treylon Burks (TEN) | +900 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | +900 |
| Drake London (ATL) | +1000 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | +1000 |
| Skye Moore (KC) | +1000 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | +1100 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +1200 |
| Kenneth Walker (SEA) | +1600 |
| James Cook (Buff) | +1600 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | +1600 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | +1800 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | +1800 |
| Jahan Dotson (WAS) | +2000 |
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year predictions and picks
Garrett Wilson +1200 (BetMGM)
An excellent situation for the pro-ready wide receiver from Ohio State. The Garrett Wilson to Zach Wilson connection could be a force for years to come – if the two can connect.
Even if the Jets QB doesn’t take the expected leap forward, Garrett Wilson is the most important receiver on the team in terms of investment, with the team having just spent the No. 10 overall pick on the Ohio State product. The last time the Jets drafted a receiver in the first round? Santana Moss in 2001.
According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson caught eight of 13 targets that were deemed “contested” in 2021. The 61.5% rate ranked in the top 16% among all qualified FBS wide receivers. For reference, the average rate of caught contested ball is just 43.8%.
Wilson did play some slots during his sophomore season at Ohio State with great success. That season, Wilson became just the second Buckeyes receiver to gain 100-plus yards in four consecutive games.
Other than that year, he played mostly outside as the X receiver. Regardless of where he plays, look for Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur to get that ball to him in creative ways.
Betting on the NFL?
Chris Olave +1200 (Caesars)
The ‘other’ Ohio State wide receiver is Chris Olave. Michael Thomas’ return to the Saints offense is garnering most of the buzz – but is Olave being overlooked?
There is a list of problems with the notion that Thomas will come back and immediately put up elite numbers. At one point, he had one foot (or ankle) out the door, as the Saints considered trading the disgruntled receiver. He also hasn’t really played in two years, and Drew Brees is the only quarterback who has consistently caught passes from. Thomas could have a rebirth season, but if he gets injured or underperforms, Olave could be the next man up.
Olave profiles as one of the best route runners coming out of the draft this year. His route running was the highest ranked of any receiver entering the draft (PFF), and he rarely drops the ball (4.9% career drop rate). He isn’t the playmaker with the ball in his hands that Wilson is, but Olave has a great opportunity to produce.
With other contenders for the award — like Drake London and Skyy Moore — having a much longer list of roster competition, Olave is a solid bet to win Rookie of the Year at these odds. Some oddsmakers have him as the clear favorite, so +1200 on Caesars Sportsbook is solid value.
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