It feels like it’s Patrick Mahomes’ award to lose in the 2022 NFL MVP race heading into Week 17 of the regular season. But has he created enough distance from the Bengals’ Joe Burrow or the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts to make room in his trophy case?
Here’s what you need to know with the latest odds from BetMGM in the race for the league’s top individual honor:
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QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
The Kansas City passer did nothing to lose his lead in a Week 16 win against the Seahawks. He threw for 224 yards with two touchdown passes for a 106.8 passer rating and one rushing TD, but he tied a single-game season low with a 57.1 completion percentage. Mahomes also holds a significant lead in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added per dropback stat at 0.28, and he’s second in overall passer rating at 105.1. He leads the league with 4,720 passing yards and 37 TD passes. The Chiefs could also jump into the AFC’s No. 1 seed by the end of Week 17 if they beat the fledgling Broncos and the Bills fall to the surging Bengals. It’s not too hard to stump for Mahomes as the MVP at this rate.
QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
He might be the only one with a scant chance of passing Mahomes with Cincinnati riding a seven-game winning streak and nine wins in its last 10 games. Burrow threw for 375 yards and completed 76.9 percent of his 52 attempts in the team’s Week 16 win over New England. He added three TDs, but tossed two interceptions in the win. He’s thrown four interceptions in the past three games, but he’s also added nine TD passes. Burrow’s EPA per dropback rate may not be near Mahomes as Burrow’s 0.12 rate ranks eighth among qualified quarterbacks. He ranks second in passing yards (4,260) and passing TDs (34), sixth in passer rating (102.3) and third in completion percentage (69.0).
Burrow can make a late push if he can one-up Josh Allen and the Bills on Monday night. This would give Burrow wins over Mahomes and Allen this season.
QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles
This almost feels like when Carson Wentz had a shot at MVP in the 2017 season and an injury derailed his chances. For me, Hurts’ shoulder injury is the only reason why he’s falling down the charts, rather than another player outperforming him on the field. The Eagles offense still pumped out 34 points in Dallas without Hurts, but Philly ultimately suffered its second loss of the season after watching the Cowboys storm back from 34-27 to score 13 points in the final 5:49. It’s still up in the air if Hurts will start Sunday against the Saints in New Orleans. It seems like the Eagles would still win in Week 17 with Gardner Minshew, so sitting Hurts shouldn’t stun anyone. But sitting again means his MVP chances are all but gone.
QB Josh Allen, Bills
A remarkable final two games combined with a total collapse by Mahomes would be the only way for Allen to vault from fourth to first. A monster game in his MVP showdown with Burrow on Monday would help. Allen threw two TDs and rushed for one along with two interceptions in Buffalo’s Week 16 win at Chicago. He ranks second in EPA per dropback (0.19), third in TD passes (32) and ninth in passer rating (96.1). But the Bills would earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed if they win out. That still wouldn’t seem like enough to pass Mahomes.
(Photo: David Butler II / USA Today)
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