In a draft dominated by blue-chip defensive stars, Kayvon Thibodeax was the fifth defender taken and the third at his own position. But he’s the first choice in the betting market to bring home hardware in his professional debut.
The Giants edge rusher is currently the preseason favorite (+550) to win the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award at FanDuel – just ahead of Lions end Aidan Hutchinson (+600), who opened as the favorite this summer and is still the top choice at some books. Those two are the clear top choices in this market, with Jaguars’ top overall pick Travon Walker and Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton both dealing at +1000.
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2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year betting odds
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | +550 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +600 |
| Travon Walker | +1000 |
| Kyle Hamilton | +1000 |
| Ahmad Gardner | +1400 |
| Derek Stingley | +1400 |
| Nakobe Dean | +1600 |
| Jordan Davis | +1600 |
| Jermaine Johnson | +1600 |
| Quay Walker | +1600 |
| Trent McDuffie | +2000 |
| Devin Lloyd | +2000 |
| Cairo Elam | +2000 |
| George Karlaftis | +2000 |
| Andrew Booth | +2500 |
| Drake Jackson | +4000 |
| Daxton Hill | +4000 |
| Devonte Wyatt | +4000 |
| Sam Williams | +4000 |
| Lewis Cine | +4000 |
| Jaquan Brisker | +4000 |
| Kyler Gordon | +4000 |
Kayvon Thibodeaux’s case to win 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
Thibodeaux didn’t open as the favorite, but a stellar training camp has elevated the former Oregon standout to the top spot ahead of the top two picks in this year’s draft – both of whom have similar upside as elite pass-rushers with tremendous burst and athleticism.
Thibodeaux may be the tooliest of them all, though. The 6-foot-5, 258-pound edge rusher was the consensus top prospect in the 2022 class before an injury-plagued final season with the Ducks knocking him down the draft board. Still, he finished his collegiate career with 126 tackles, including 35.5 tackles for loss and 19 sacks across 30 games.
He’ll need even better production at the next level to win this award. Five of the last six winners finished with at least seven sacks, which has become a de facto threshold in a market dominated by elite pass rushers. That includes last year’s winner, Micah Parsons, who finished with a ridiculous 13 sacks for the Cowboys as a do-it-all linebacker.
Parsons was the third consecutive preseason favorite to win this award, following Chase Young (2020) and Nick Bosa (2019) before him, which bodes well for Thibodeaux’s chances in 2022. Simply put, this isn’t a market for long shots: since juniors started declaring for the draft in 1989, 30 of the 33 DPOY winners have been first-round picks – with more winners taken in the top five (11) than in the second round (3).
Thibodeaux is in an ideal spot to continue that trend along this talented Giants front, with Azeez Ojulari and Leonard Williams drawing attention away from the talented rookie unlike his days at Oregon. Still, if you aren’t sold on this year’s betting favorite, here are three other long-shot names to consider:
2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year long-shot bets
Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens (+1,000)
A safety hasn’t won this award since 1990, when Bears star Mark Carrier led the league with 10 interceptions to earn the honor. Hamilton isn’t just any safety, though, and he’s in an ideal spot to wreak havoc on this Ravens defense.
The No. The 14th overall pick was viewed as the best pure prospect in this year’s class by many draftniks after an All-American season at Notre Dame. Positional value knocked him out of the top 10, but he’ll have a chance to shine in this blitz-heavy Baltimore defense that thrives on chaos and confusion.
That opens the door for Hamilton to show off his ball-hawking skill set as a center-fielder for the Ravens, who already have elite safety Marcus Williams and a pair of top corners around him. It’ll take a turnover-fueled run for Hamilton to win it, but he’s a highlight-reel talent in a perfect situation to make noise as a rookie.
Betting on the NFL?
Quay Walker, LB, Packers (+1600)
While pass-rushers have largely dominated this market, two of the last four winners have been true linebackers, which paves the way for Walker to threaten for this award.
The Packers’ first-round pick was all over the field at Georgia, where he racked up 137 tackles across four seasons for a defense loaded with future NFL talent. At 6-4 and 241 pounds, Walker has the prototypical size and elite speed to roam the middle of the field for Green Bay and stuff the stat sheet right away, which makes him an intriguing dark-horse candidate.
Kaiir Elam, CB, Bills (+2000)
There are better cornerbacks in this draft class, but few have the chance to make such an immediate impact as Elam, who could play an outsized role for arguably the best defense in the league.
The Florida product has already turned heads in camp and in his preseason debut, recording a pass breakup on his first drive to end the Colts’ drive. He’ll have a shot to earn a starting job for Buffalo if he keeps it up, and he has the ball skills to post the type of stat line needed for a cornerback to compete in this market. If he can do it for one of the best units in football, he’ll be in the running for this award by the end of the season.
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