The 2022 MLB postseason continues Tuesday with the start of the American League Division Series and the National League Division Series, best-of-five rounds that promise to be packed with drama and intensity.
In the American League, the Houston Astros face the Seattle Mariners, and the New York Yankees battle the Cleveland Guardians. In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers go up against their Southern California rivals, the San Diego Padres, while the Atlanta Braves play the Philadelphia Phillies.
More games mean more opportunities to bet. Our experts tackle some of the most important questions surrounding how bettors should approach all of the ALDS and NLDS games this week.
Here are the updated series odds:
Yankees -250/Guardians +200
Braves -200/Phillies +165
Astros -260/Mariners +210
Dodgers -250/Padres +200
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, except where noted
Of the four series, which one do you see as being the most likely to have an upset winner?
Caravel: The Guardians definitely stand out. They don’t score many runs, as we saw this weekend, but their run prevention is terrific, and the Yankees still rely way too much on one elite hitter (Aaron Judge) and one elite starting pitcher (Gerrit Cole). New York’s bullpen certainly can’t come close to Emmanuel Clase and his pals, either. I’m surprised Cleveland’s odds aren’t better. Each of Cleveland’s top three starters had a better ERA than Cole this season. Beat Cole in Game 1 and it might be a quick series.
Cockcroft: I disagree with Eric about the Yankees’ rotation depth, as Nestor Cortes (1.32 ERA in five season-ending, post-injured list starts) and Luis Severino (1.69 in three season-ending, post-IL starts) can go toe-to -toe with anyone in the Guardians’ rotation aside from Shane Bieber, in terms of talent. The problem with either, however, is their respective 5.6 and 5.4 innings-per-start and 88 and 86 pitches-per-start full-season averages, rates that tend to shrink come the heat of October playoff games. The Yankees must therefore place heavy emphasis on a motley crew of relievers that has 13 games’ postseason experience (12 by Jonathan Loaisiga and Lou Trivino alone), and I don’t see them hanging in tight games with the Guardians to the degree that the New Rays. Bottom line: If the Yankees don’t hit, they’ll be in trouble. And as I suspect they might struggle to hit, I’m picking the Guardians to have the best chance at an upset.
Conversely, which of the favorites do you think has the best chance to win in a 3-0 sweep?
(DraftKings odds of a sweep: Braves +400, Astros +310, Yankees +350, Dodgers +360)
Caravel: The odds on the Astros are overwhelming, and they should be. It’s awesome how the Mariners won the second game in Toronto, but they will face considerably better pitching in Houston. The Astros are a deep, experienced and complete team and, frankly, just as much a juggernaut — if not more so — than the Dodgers. The Mariners can hold leads, but I’m not sure they will possess many in this series.
Cockcroft: A sweep? Not that I see a high likelihood of any this round, considering the starting pitching involved, but I’ll say the Braves, if only because I think the opposing Phillies have the least well-rounded roster of any of the remaining eight teams. The Phillies’ defense was easily the worst of any team still standing, and their 4.25 relief ERA also easily placed last. The latter is a scary reality considering the matchup, as no offense in baseball had a higher weighted on-base average (wOBA) against opponents’ bullpens than the Braves.
Currently, Aaron Judge is the runaway favorite (+400) on DraftKings to hit the most home runs in this round of the playoffs. Would you roll with him or, if not, with which other player would you plant your flag?
Caravel: Judge should be the favorite, of course, but take a look at several Astros, as well. Not to pick on the Mariners, because they are a great story, but only six teams allowed more home runs than Seattle this season, and several of their relief pitchers are extreme fly ball options, notably Paul Sewald. Most of those pitchers will face the Astros, and the odds on Yordan Alvarez (+1100), Alex Bregman (+4000) and Jeremy Pena (+5000) seem like nice bargains, especially Pena. He hit three homers off Seattle during the regular season, one against Robbie Ray and two off Marco Gonzales, and Pena has far better odds than Jose Altuve (+2500) and Kyle Tucker (+3000).
Cockcroft: I think there’s something to be said here for which of these series is most likely to go five games — for me, it’s Guardians-Yankees — plus gets played in the most homer-friendly circumstances, so Judge is a pretty solid bet accounting for that. But Jose Ramirez for +2200 is a pretty tantalizing choice in his own right, so I’ll go with him instead.
We’re down to eight teams, so we’ll ask again: What team are you taking to win the World Series at the current odds?
Caravel: The Astros have been to the World Series three times in five seasons and have lost two of them, just like the Dodgers. Frankly, Houston’s odds should be closer to that of the Dodgers, if not better. The Astros’ path back to the World Series seems easier. Go with Houston, but also throw a few down on the Braves repeating. A potential Dodgers-Braves series really could go either way, but these odds tell a far different and surprising tale.
Cockcroft: I’m sticking with the Guardians, although the narrowing of their odds, from +3500 to +1800, would surely have me also throwing a few down on the Braves, since their odds (if memory serves) merely shrunk from +600 to + 550. I still think the Braves have as good a chance as the Dodgers or Astros to win the World Series, so those are pretty tantalizing odds. But to me, there’s still no way I see the Guardians being the biggest long shot of the remaining eight, and I want value.
Carty: I’ll take the Phillies at +1100. THE BAT X has thought they’re the most underrated great team in baseball all year. The biggest concern is that they likely have the hardest road to the World Series facing Atlanta, (presumably) LA and the Yankees or Astros. But at basically full health now in the postseason, I’ll take those odds for a team that is nearly as good as Atlanta and anyone in the AL. (Nobody can touch the Dodgers, unfortunately, in terms of talent and projection, but you’re not getting any value on them at +260.)
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