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LAST SEASON
The Montreal Canadiens had somewhat high expectations going into the 2021-22 season after a shocking run to the Stanley Cup Final, eliminating elite teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vegas Golden Knights along the way before losing in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning. . The Habs expected to be without Shea Weber and Carey Price for most, if not all, of the season, and they also lost Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet, but they quickly replaced him with Christian Dvorak. So, factoring in a couple free agent signings in Mike Hoffman and David Savard, things seemed somewhat promising.
Any hope for a repeat run was dead on arrival once the season started, as the team struggled to put wins together. They started off the season with five straight losses, and just couldn’t get consecutive wins at all, capping off the horrendous start with a stretch that saw them go 2-18-5, including losing streaks of seven, six, and 10 in that span.
By November, they’d fired GM Marc Bergevin, with Kent Hughes taking the job by January. Near the end of that stretch, they let go of head coach Dominique Ducharme and replaced him with Martin St. Louis, and things started to turn around. Now, a 14-19-4 record isn’t great either, but it’s a huge difference from the 8-30-7 record they had beforehand. They still missed the playoffs by a wide margin and finished last place as a result, ending up with the first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft.
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Kirby Dach, C
Evgenii Dadonov, RW
Mike Matheson, D
Sean Monahan, C
Madison Bowey, D
Mitchell Stephens, C
Departures
Alexander Romanov, D (NYI)
Jeff Petry, D (Pit)
Shea Weber, D (Veg)
Ryan Poehling, C (Pit)
Laurent Dauphin, C (Ari)
Xavier Ouellet, D (Pit)
William Lagesson, D (Car)
OFFENSE
It’s pretty telling that the Habs finished in last place in 2021-22 when their offense was their strength with 2.66 goals per game, good for 27th in the league. That wasn’t just bad shooting luck either, as they were 27th in 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes with 50.52 and 21st in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 with 2.37. Cap that off with the second worst power play at 13.7 percent, and you have a recipe for a very weak offense.
That carried over even with their best players. They had just one player over 50 points with Nick Suzuki’s 61, another one over 40 with Cole Caufield’s 43, and three more over 30 with Mike Hoffman, Christian Dvorak, and Josh Anderson. That did change a bit once St. Louis took over, with Suzuki and Caufield scoring at almost a point per game, Dvorak had 17 points in 22 games, and they even got some surprise production from Rem Pitlick with 21 points in the final 37 games.
They’ll look to build off that momentum this season, and a few additions up front might help that. Dadonov is a smart and savvy move, especially since he was a cap dump, and he was a victim of bad luck in Vegas, so he could be a solid addition to the team’s top nine. Newly acquired centers Sean Monahan and Kirby Dach aren’t as much of a sure thing to make an impact, as the team will be betting heavily on Monahan (once healthy) returning to his 60-plus point ways from Calgary and Dach finally figuring out. his NHL game. However, their bigger concern is a lack of offense from the blueline, which they did nothing to address in the offseason and actually weakened by dealing Petry. Overall, they have some solid pieces but not enough to dominate hockey games like some of their stronger opponents in the Atlantic Division.
DEFENSE
As bad as their offense was, their defense was even worse. They had the worst goals against per game at 3.87, allowed the fourth most 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes with 61.11, and tied with the Arizona Coyotes for the worst 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes with 2.91. . Losing Phillip Danault to free agency and Shea Weber to injury for the season certainly didn’t help those numbers, but they just couldn’t establish a strong defensive game at any point, even from the few players on the team that are known for their defensive prowess.
Up front, they’ll be hoping for Suzuki and Brendan Gallagher to rebound and have much better years, because they are the team’s most reliable options there. With the other center options looking like Dvorak and Dach, Suzuki is the anchor of their center depth and will probably get the tough minutes. Dadonov might help with driving offense and creating pressure in the offensive zone, but he still isn’t the best bet when trapped in the defensive zone either.
On the back end, you’re looking at a group that also struggled and likely got worse for this season. As bad as Petry was in 2021-22, he was the team’s best option there and was likely to rebound, so moving on from him leaves a hole there. They also traded away Alexander Romanov, and while he hasn’t quite established a strong defensive game, he certainly had the most room for upside, so it’s still a big loss for the blueline. They’ll be hoping that Mike Matheson can soften the blow, with him being the player they got in return for Petry, and while Matheson turned around his game in Pittsburgh, he did it in softer minutes, so that’s not a good sign if he’s getting the shutdown role in Montreal. If there’s any upside to this year’s blueline, they won’t have Ben Chiarot dragging them down in the top four minutes, but it’s likely that Joel Edmundson and David Savard fill that role instead, which isn’t much of an improvement.
GOALTENDING
The only thing that can save this team is another insane run from Carey Price, and unfortunately for Habs fans, it looks like he probably won’t be playing in 2022-23, so that can be ruled out. This means they’ll turn to the tandem of Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault, who combined last season to give the team the ninth worst 5-on-5 save percentage in the league.
However, their save percentage doesn’t tell the whole story, especially with Allen. He didn’t exactly have the best defense in front of him, so considering that, he weathered the storm quite well in the crease for the Habs. His .905 save percentage isn’t anything special, but he did save 8.14 goals above expected, which ranked 13th in the league, and had a +0.67 percent delta fenwick save percentage, which was 10th. What this means is that, if he played behind an average team, he ends up with much better numbers than what he did in Montreal. However, he is 32, so while he’s a stable option for the time being, he’s not a goalie you look to build the team around going forward.
COACHING
St. Louis will get his first chance at a full season behind the bench in Montreal this season, winning the approval of Habs management as Ducharme’s replacement last year and losing the interim tag. The team saw some improvement under St. Louis as well, but mostly just in the wins category, going 14-19-4 after he took over.
Where the Canadiens didn’t see as much improvement was in their underlying numbers. They went from a 44.89 percent shot attempt share and 43.26 percent expected goal share at even strength under Ducharme to 45.69 percent and 46.69 percent under St. Louis, respectively, which is still improving but nowhere near competitive. However, the numbers under St. Louis could be more of an indication of how far the roster has to go than his coaching ability. We’ll have to see what happens with a full season under his belt.
ROOKIES
If there’s one silver lining to the Habs roster not being the best: it leaves plenty of room for their young talent to find their way into the lineup, if not during training camp then during the season, especially after the trade deadline.
You can’t talk about their young talent without mentioning first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky. Even if he was a surprise first overall pick, he still comes with loads of skill, and he has a unique combination of using his finesse and his strength to create offense. However, it seems like he’s going to be given a year to develop, so this might not be the year to see that talent on display. We have him penciled into the projected lineup for now, but where he plays will depend on what he shows in training camp.
On the back end, Kaiden Guhle and Justin Barron will certainly get their fair share of opportunities thanks to a lack of strong options there. Barron got into a few games late in the season after Montreal acquired him at the deadline and impressed even then, so he’s certainly a strong bet to make the team out of training camp. Guhle will be entering his first full professional season, so it’s likely that he starts the year in the AHL, but perhaps a good start there will give him his opportunities as the season goes along.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Was Juraj Slafkovsky the right pick at 1st overall? The Habs shocked the 2022 NHL Draft with the first overall pick, opting for Slafkovsky instead of projected top pick Shane Wright, the potential first line center the Habs have been seeking for over a decade. It will be interesting to see if Slafkovsky ends up being the right pick, as well as what kind of impact he brings to the team this season. With the legit chance that he doesn’t start the season with the team, this question may not be answered this year, but it’s definitely intriguing to see how this choice pans out of the course of Slafkovsky’s career.
2. Will the Habs carry the momentum they gained when Martin St. Louis took over? As mentioned before, the Habs saw significant progression after firing Ducharme and bringing in St. Louis as the head coach for the remainder of the season, both as a team overall, as well as some of their key players stepping up. Whether that was a flash in the pan or a sign of the kind of team St. Louis can consistently bring to the ice will have a big impact on if they continue to be a lottery contender for a few more seasons.
3. Will Nick Suzuki rebound as his new contract begins? While 61 points in 81 games isn’t necessarily a bad season, Suzuki struggled immensely on the defensive end for someone with the reputation of a young two-way center, with a 45.21 percent shot attempt share and a 43.33 percent expected goal share at even. strength. His $7.875 million-per-year extension kicks in this season, so the Habs have committed to him as a foundational piece of the team. It’s essential for him to turn it around if the Habs want to be competitive down the road.
PREDICTION
While the Habs certainly have more promise with the strong end to last season, they still need a lot to go right if they want to even be competitive, never mind make the playoffs. They also didn’t make big changes to the roster from last season, or at least none we can confidently project to make an immediate impact. They also arguably got worse on the blueline, which was their weakness last season, so unless the youth rejuvenates the lineup a bit, they won’t make a ton of internal progress.
And of course, there’s the matter of playing in the toughest division in the league. At the top, you have the Tampa Bay Lightning coming off three straight Cup Final appearances, the Florida Panthers coming off their best ever season, the Toronto Maple Leafs on the verge of finally exploding once they exorcise their first round demons, and the Boston Bruins. making one last attempt at a second Cup with this core. So, already you have to hope you get the second wildcard spot, and while the Metropolitan division isn’t a cake walk either, they also have to fight with the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, and Buffalo Sabers in their own division. All three teams have their flaws, but they seem more prepared to take their young talent and make a surprise playoff push than the Habs.
I doubt the Canadiens will be as bad as or worse than last season, especially with how they started, but it’s also hard to see them taking significant strides and becoming much better. They probably don’t finish last with Chicago and Arizona both looking much worse, but the Habs probably still finish in the bottom 10, even if they can prove that last season’s stretch under St. Louis wasn’t a fluke.
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