The Nuggets have taken a commanding 3-1 lead over the Miami Heat heading into Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night. The Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray combo has been virtually unstoppable in its quest for an NBA title, and the Nuggets are just one win away from reaching their goal. Standing in their way is a resilient Heat team that’s defied the odds all postseason. History is against them, however, as the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers are the only team to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals to win a championship.
Will the Heat be next? They’ve been counted out before, but they’ll need a big showing from their role players and Jimmy Butler to bring the series back to Miami.
Here are my two best bets ahead of Monday’s tipoff:
Jimmy Butler over 12.5 rebounds + assists (-125)
As much as I would love to bet Jimmy Buckets over in points, I can’t get there. He’s been under 26.5 points in three of four games in this series, and as he’s said this postseason, he’s not a scorer; he just wants to win:
And he’s right. Butler’s scoring has dropped to 21.4 points per game, his lowest of any series in this postseason. But facing elimination, expect Butler to impact all facets of the game.
The Heat’s identity this postseason has been playing outstanding defense and knocking down three-pointers. Being down 3-1 with their backs against the wall, they’ll need to resurrect that identity if they’re going to extend the series. The Heat are known for their tenacity and effort. As the leader of the Heat, I’m anticipating Butler to come out aggressively, doing everything he can to elevate his teammates in a closeout game.
Now, that’s easier said than done. The Nuggets are torching the Heat with the Jokić-Murray pick-and-roll plus dribble-handoff combinations. But offensively, the Heat are also missing shots they’ve shown a propensity to hit throughout this postseason.
Butler has the third-highest potential assist total in this series at 11.3 per game and is averaging 6.8 assists (Butler’s most of any series in this postseason). And while he’s only securing five rebounds per game, his rebound chances are over 10. The opportunities are there, and Butler’s gone over 12.5 rebounds and assists in five of six games versus Denver this season (postseason plus regular season) with an average of 13.3 . Butler hit this over in all three road games against the Nuggets, plus he’s been over in 64% of games coming off two days rest per props.cash.
He may not be the scorer he was when the Heat embarked on this memorable postseason run, but he’ll make a statement on the glass and get his teammates involved with the season on the line.
Caldwell-Pope comes into Game 5 of the NBA Finals averaging 6.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists – so slightly below his 11.5 PRA line. However, Pope’s role as the guard-stopper has been invaluable for the Nuggets’ defense in this series.
He’s held Gabe Vincent to 40% shooting, and Max Strus has been a ghost in three out of four games when guarded by KCP thus far in the series. Duncan Robinson has shot 1-of-5 when defended by KCP, too.
Caldwell-Pope racked up three steals in Game 4, and his defensive performance has largely flown under the radar because he’s not filling up the stat sheet like his star teammates. But it’s the right kind of hustle and momentum that I will back heading into a potential closeout game.
His shooting woes are apparent, as he’s only shooting 33% from the field in this series, but I think he comes alive in Game 5 to help secure his second NBA title. In the four previous closeout games in this year’s playoffs, here are KCP’s numbers:
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Game 5 versus Timberwolves: 10 points, 2 rebounds and 1 assist (13 PRA)
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Game 6 versus Suns: 21 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists (29 PRA)
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Game 4 versus Lakers: 13 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assist (18 PRA)
And KCP’s performance at home during the playoffs carries some weight too. He’s gone over 11.5 PRA in 9-of-10 home games this postseason while also going over this mark in 79% of games throughout the playoffs.
He should see a healthy dose of minutes, seeing as he’s played at least 36 minutes in three of four games in the Finals. If you include the regular-season matchups against Miami, he cleared 11.5 PRA in four of six contests — with the only two misses coming in Game 2 (Denver loss) and Game 3 (played 28 minutes). He had a series-high eight rebound chances in Game 4, and with a better shooting performance plus hitting his series averages of three-plus rebounds and one assist, I like KCP to hit this over.