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Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday, September 26th (2022)

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Aaron Judge takes his pursuit of the American League home run record to Canada as the New York Yankees open a three-game road series with the Toronto Blue Jays. Judge almost gets the spotlight all to himself, as the Yankees-Blue Jays series opener is just one of four games on a surprisingly small four-game slate.

Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ML

Do not let Pittsburgh’s Roansy Contreras’ (5-5, 3.68) previous poor start against the Yankees cloud how good the young hurler has been of late.

Contreras had a 1.79 ERA through his first three September starts before that poor outing in New York, which is impressive considering two of those starts were against teams with a winning record. In addition, entering the last start against the Yankees, hitters batting in the top of the order were hitting just .186 off Contreras. That was the eighth-best among all starting pitchers with at least 72 innings pitched at the time.

Contreras had done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard, as before his last start against New York, Contreras had a four-start streak (spanning 23.1 innings) where he had not allowed a home run. Cincinnati’s offense ranks 13th in the league with 33 home runs over the previous 30 days, but Contreras is built to neutralize that strength. And when the Reds are not going deep, they are not consistently stringing hits together, as their 82 wRC+ ranks 29th in the league over the last month.

Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-140 at DraftKings)

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays ML

It may seem blasphemous to oppose the Yankees at this point, as they enter this game on a seven-game winning streak with a +23 run differential in that span. However, that run differential is misleading, given that one of those wins was by 12 runs against Pittsburgh, and three others were by one run.

New York has been a much more explosive and successful team at home this season, as they are 34 games over .500 at home but just two games over .500 on the road. In addition, New York is just 5-8 in its last 13 road games and 1-7-1 in its last nine road series.

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.32) ranks fifth in the AL in strikeouts and has pounded the zone this year, with a whopping 70% of his pitches thrown for strikes, resulting in a career-low 3.9% walk percentage. He also ranks in the 74th percentile in whiff percentage and an eye-popping 99th percentile in chase rate. Gausman has allowed two runs in 12.2 innings against New York this year, and we expect him to pitch well again.

New York is 3-0 in Luis Severino’s last three starts, but those have come against the Pirates and Reds, two teams a combined 74 games under .500. The Yankees would clinch the AL East with a win tonight, but the Blue Jays will be motivated to spoil that celebration at least for one night.

Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML (OFF at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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