Every MLB season, we can make predictions or have projection systems tell us what is most likely to happen, but the things we end up remembering are the things that weren’t very likely to happen. And that’s why we remember them — they popped out and became huge, league-wide stories.
So we made a big pool of things we would like to see happen in the 2023 MLB season, and we’re going to draft from them (hat tip to the Solid Verbal college football podcast for this particular format). In doing this, we’ll be able to gauge exactly what we’re most interested in this season.
We’re talking about stories that take on huge importance — it could be a moment, it could be a series, it could be a transaction, it could be a season-long result. These stories are within the realm of reality but not likely to happen. So when we make a pick, we’re not predicting the thing that will happen — it would actually be really weird if it happened. But that’s the point. We want to see interesting baseball things happen.
Let’s get to it.
No. 1 (Hannah): Ronald Acuña Jr. spends the season’s final week furiously chasing 40/40
Ronald Acuña Jr. came very close to 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases a few years ago — in 2019, he had 41 home runs and 30 steals with a week left in the season — and he has pretty openly said he would like to try again. Also, Acuña is the only active player who has gotten close, and he’s the only active player who has had a 35/35 season at any point in his career. So this actually feels like one of the more realistic things on our list.
No. 2 (Zach): A hitter’s pitch-timer panic swing pays off
If you think about the iconic baseball plays you’ve seen on TV, there’s the basket catch for Willie Mays back in the day, or there’s the “Randy Johnson hits a bird with a pitch” moment. They’re unforgettable. They’re totally weird. One of the things I most recall are the intentional walk pitches on which a batter would get one close enough to the plate and swing at it and hit a single. (Miguel Cabrera is the last guy I remember doing this when he was with the Marlins.)
This year, I think we’re going to introduce a new version of this. And that’s when a hitter forgets to get in the box for the pitch timer, and it runs down, but he doesn’t get a violation. He remembers to get in the box and looks at the pitcher. But the pitch is basically on the way, so he has to jump in and just swing and not really think about it. Some guy is going to do this, and he’s going to hit a home run or a walk-off double into the gap. And if that comes in a game-changing moment or some other big situation, I think this will be on baseball highlight reels for the next 30 to 50 years.
No. 3 (Hannah): Edwin Díaz returns from injury to pitch for the Mets in the World Series
Edwin Díaz just underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. The general timeline for his recovery is around eight months, although in certain cases, it is possible to return closer to six months. Somewhere between six months and eight months would put him right in time for a triumphant return for the World Series — and the trumpets play for the first time in more than a year.
Now, this piece of speculative fiction presupposes that the Mets make the World Series, that they go deep into October without Díaz. And I think they can. They’re still a very good baseball team. So I love this. I just think it would be delightful.
No. 4 (Zach): Freddie Freeman makes a bid for the first .400 batting average since Ted Williams
There have been several .400 chases in our lifetime. Nomar Garciaparra and Todd Helton were the most famous. The longest streak since Ted Williams actually batted .400 in 1941 belonged to George Brett, the Royals star. After 134 games in 1980, he was batting 400, and then he dipped below it and never got back there, obviously. (Otherwise, we’d be talking about George Brett a lot more.)
But I think Freddie Freeman stands as good a chance as anyone. He has been a very frequent batting champion contender. He’s a very good hitter, he’s left-handed, and to whatever small degree the shift ban helps anyone, I think it will help Freeman some. So I’ve picked him for this unrealistic but fun possibility.
No. 5 (Hannah): Jacob deGrom makes 25 — scratch that, 30! — starts for the first time since 2019
I think people forget that Jacob deGrom was freakishly durable for how hard he threw prior to a couple of years ago. Between 2017 and 2019, he made at least 30 starts each of those years. And I understand that he hasn’t pitched 100 innings since then, but first of all, one of those seasons was the pandemic, and people lump that in. People say things like, ‘Oh, he only made 38 starts his last three years with the Mets,’ but that’s not entirely his fault.
People who shall remain unnamed write about how Justin Verlander is so much more durable than deGrom, and to that I say: Verlander also missed an entire year. So I think there’s a real recency bias to the idea that deGrom is, like, intrinsically porcelain, and you simply have to accept that he will be hurt. And then additionally, the idea that he might still be worth it for the games he is able to play. I do not reject that premise, but I reject the starting point that deGrom simply can never have another relatively healthy season.
No. 6 (Zach): Shohei Ohtani is not traded and instead leads the Angels to the playoffs
I am pretty high on the Angels’ chances of competence this year, against all past evidence. And I think if they’re close to the playoff race at the trade deadline, which seems feasible, that creates the most pressure-packed final couple of months in recent memory for a single baseball team, as this might be the last time we have Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout playing on the same team. So if the Angels decide they’re not going to trade Ohtani, they should probably trade for anything that isn’t nailed down that might help them reach the postseason because the idea is not just that we’d really like to see Ohtani make the playoffs with Trout.
The idea, I would assume, for the Angels is also that Ohtani is going to be gauging where he wants to play in the future. And if you show him that he could win in Anaheim, well, I don’t know if he’s going to stay there, but I’m pretty sure he’s leaving if they don’t make the playoffs. So the difference that a playoff spot could make is just so seismic, and I want to see that pressure-cooker happen.